Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks

Lead MLB analyst Jason Radowitz studies the betting markets for the Phillies @ Marlins and provides his best bets
Jason Radowitz
Fri, September 3, 9:13 AM EDT

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Probable Pitchers:

  • Phillies: Kyle Gibson (10-5, 2.94 ERA)
  • Marlins: Jesus Luzardo (5-7, 7.19 ERA)

Click here to see Phillies vs Marlins odds.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

The Phillies are on a seven-game winning streak and while they haven’t really been scoring early in games, that should change against their next opponent.

Jesus Luzardo is scheduled to take the mound for the Marlins. He’s coming off his best start of the season and everyone has taken notice.

Luzardo has a 7.19 ERA despite pitching six innings in his last start against Reds where he allowed just one hit and struck out eight.

The potential is there for Luzardo but the reality is, the Reds were struggling against lefties to begin with. Luzardo just faced a poor Reds offense against lefties at the time.

In his previous five starts for the Marlins, Luzardo had allowed 24 runs in 22.1 innings along with 31 hits. That’s the Luzardo we’re likely going to see in this one.

In the last 30 days, Luzardo still has an xFIP of 5.96 with a strikeout rate of 20.2 percent and a walk rate of 13.2 percent. Luzardo has induced just 35.1 percent of ground balls and allowed 25.7 percent of line drives.

Furthermore, he’s allowed a wOBA of .477 and ISO of .350 to his last 21 lefties that they faced, as a left-hander. Against his last 93 righties, he’s allowed a .391 wBA and ISO of .253. He’s also walking 16.1 percent of rightties on top of everything else.

The Phillies offense is projected to have seven righties in the lineup along with their star lefty in Bryce Harper. This lineup has feasted against righties with an ISO of .207 and wOBA of .356 in the last 30 days. What sets them apart is that they’re striking out just 13.3 percent of the time while walking 12.5 percent of the time.

If the Phillies can limit strikeouts and work walks, good things should happen. They’re also hitting 25.2 percent of line drives and that bodes well against Luzardo who allows nearly the same amount of line drives in the last 30 days.

There’s so much power in this lineup and potential for players to get on base. All it takes is a couple hits and a blast to score enough runs to cash a ticker for the Phillies. Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Ronald TTorreyes and Rafael Marchan have shown off power against lefties recently.

Every single batter on the Phillies outside Torreyes is walking over 10 percent of the time against lefties. They’re putting together really good at bats while Luzardo has looked awful all season long, despite his most recent performance.

Currently, the Phillies over in the first five innings on the team total is set at 2 at -110. I love having that insurance at 2, knowing if the Phillies only score two runs, it’s a push but if they score three runs, it’s a win.

Let’s roll with the Phillies to continue their winning ways. To do that, they’ll need to score some runs.

MLB Bet: Phillies Over 2 F5 TT (-110) at PointsBet

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