Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Pick

The Phillies hit Milwaukee ace, Brandon Woodruff, hard yesterday. Today, Philadelphia tries to clinch the series win against Eric Lauer. Don't miss Matt Zylbert's Phillies vs. Brewers prediction
Matt Zylbert
Tue, September 7, 11:26 AM EDT

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Pick

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.54 ERA) vs. Eric Lauer (4-5, 3.43 ERA)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Phillies vs. Brewers odds

See that 4.54 ERA next to Nola? Yeah, that’s unusual and won’t stay that high.

His current standing is also the result of a poor outing last time out in DC, where Nola was tagged for six runs. The good news, however, is this can be used to the advantage of a gambler capping the total.

Of course, not often does the former No. 7 overall draft pick get roughed up for more than four runs in a start. But when it does happen, Nola’s displayed a distinct tendency of rebounding immediately after.

Since really settling in as a quality Major League starter, there had been 11 instances where the opposition scratched out at least five earned runs off Nola prior to his last assignment. In his 10 ensuing turns in the rotation (not 11 because one occurred his final start of a season), only once was Nola hit up for that many again in the follow-up start, and he amassed a whopping 86 K’s across those particular assignments, spanning 66.1 innings. Additionally, he also pitched the Phillies into the sixth in all but one of these dates.

Simply look beyond that current unflattering earned run average and Nola is actually having an awesome 2021, evidenced by the right-hander logging a career-low walk rate (2.06 BB/9) while maintaining his usual high strikeout rate (10.97 K/9.). Impressively, Nola is also sixth among all starting pitchers in baseball in strikeouts per walk (5.3 K/BB).

So, it looks like Nola can be counted on for some quality pitching this evening. What about his emerging counterpart, Lauer?

Well surprisingly, the former San Diego Padre is thriving in his second season with the Brewers. He’s just not getting any attention because of Milwaukee’s Big Three on their pitching staff. Even so, the fact remains Lauer has never strung together lower ERA (3.43), WHIP (1.22) or batting average against (.228) marks.

He’s been consistently churning out this solid pitching, yielding three earned runs or fewer in 13 of 15 starts. The fourth-year southpaw is also coming in on a high after a seven-inning gem his last turn, which was actually the fifth time he’s completed at least seven frames in his MLB career. That came on the road in San Francisco.

Based on his steadiness, I say let’s give Lauer a shot to help produce a low-scoring affair here. Opposite an improved Nola performance can get the job done.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (+100)

Leans

Rangers-Diamondbacks Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “73-65-9,” +0.19 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Royals-Orioles Under 10.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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