St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Pick

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Pick

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Probable Pitchers

• Dodgers: TBD
• Cardinals: JA Happ (8-7, 6.20 ERA)

It's hard to have an ERA of 6.20 and a record above .500, but that's precisely what JA Happ has done this season. The old lefty is 8-7 on the season despite that 6.20 ERA. It's crazy to think about.

Since coming over to the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline, Happ has allowed just two runs or fewer in every game but one. However, that one game was just last week, and it was brutal.

Happ allowed eight hits and seven runs in just one inning of work against the Reds, who had been struggling against lefties prior. He gave up two long balls and walked two with no strikeouts.

It literally took him 52 pitches to get just three outs in the game. So that's where we're at with Happ currently. Before the switch from Minnesota to St. Louis, this was a common theme.

Happ had games where he allowed nine runs, seven runs, six runs. You name it. He has been rocked plenty of times this year.

Now he'll go up against one of the more lethal lineups in baseball in the Dodgers. In the last 30 days, Happ has had an xFIP of 5.83 with 18.6 percent strikeouts, and 9.8 percent walks. He hasn't been able to induce many ground balls and is giving up nearly 22 percent of line-drive contact.

Lefties are hitting a .414 wOBA and .333 ISO, while righties have a .172 ISO against Happ as of late. Oddly enough, he's been better against righties, but this is taking into account three bouts with the Pittsburgh Pirates and one game against the Kansas City Royals.

Once you look at Happ's competition, it's easy to understand why he had a little bit of success since joining the Cardinals. He faced the Pirates and the Royals four of his first six games with the Cardinals.

The Dodgers have plenty of power in their lineup, including an ISO of .219 and wOBA of .320. This team is hitting just 40 percent ground balls, and launching line drives about 20 percent of the time against lefties in the last 30 days.

Trea Turner, Albert Pujols, and Will Smith are three lefties that have smashed lefties as of late. Those three will be the power bats, along with Corey Seager, who recently had solid numbers against lefties. Happ has struggled against lefties in the last 30 days when it comes to power. Therefore, Seager has real potential in this lineup along with the right-handed bats that were just mentioned.

We took the Dodgers on the team total in the first five innings last night, and it cashed in the first inning. I would not be shocked if the same happened today. We're getting one of the best offenses in baseball at over 2.5 in the first five innings at -110. That's fantastic value going up against a pitcher in Happ that has blown up more times than not this season.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction: Dodgers Over 2.5 F5 TT (-110)

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