New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Pick
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Probable Pitchers
- Mets: Rich Hill (6-6, 3.92 ERA)
- Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (8-13, 3.36 ERA)
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
The Mets offense has suddenly heated up in September. It might be a little too late but it’s happening. This is the offense New York expected all the time, especially against poor teams like the Marlins.
I’m not saying the Marlins pitching is awful but the pitching has had no help from positional players in the field, making error after error on routine type plays.
Sandy Alcantara has done everything in his power to help the Marlins win games. The man has a 3.36 ERA but a record of 8-13. In the last 30 days, he’s got an xFIP of 2.91 while striking out 28.2 percent of batters and walking 4.5 percent.
However, his last start against the Mets didn’t exactly go as planned. He allowed eight hits and four runs in 6.1 innings while striking out six and walking none. He faced 27 total batters, allowed one home run and threw 98 pitches before exiting in the 7th inning.
The one main area where Alcantara has been beat has been his line drive rate. In the last 30 days, he’s allowing 26 percent line drives and 38.4 percent hard contact. To lefties, he’s giving up an ISO of .214 and over 31.5 percent line drive contact.
The Mets projected lineup would have at least four lefties and a team that has an ISO of .243 and a wOBA of .362 in the last 30 days against righties. His team is finally starting to hit the ball as we all expected.
This same projected lineup is hitting 23.5 percent line drives and have a BABIP of .328 against righties. This lineup includes James McCann who hasn’t really come back strong just yet. He’s capable of producing for this offense as we’ve seen it last year for the White Sox.
On the other hand, Rich Hill will get the start for the Mets. He’s coming off his best start as a Met against the Nationals, allowing no runs in six innings off three hits. Still, he only struck out four and allowed two walks along with 11 fly balls.
Hill still has a 4.50 xFIP in the last 30 days and isn’t really inducing a high amount of ground balls. He’s also giving up 27.1 percent line drive contact and has struggled against righties with a wOBA of .355 and ISO of .204.
The Marlins lineup might be without Jesus Aguilar, the league leader in RBI’s but they’ll have some right-handed bats that have fared well against lefties as of late. Lewis Brinson, Bryan De La Cruz and Jorge Alfaro all have high ISO power numbers against lefties in the last 30 days. If Aguilar plays, he would be the fourth big bat in the lineup against Hill.
Therefore, I’ll take the Over 3.5 in the first five innings between these two teams. Each team needs two runs to cash this ticket and that seems very doable when looking at the matchups.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction: Over 3.5 F5 (-120) at DraftKings