New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
Blue Jays: Alek Manoah (5-2, 3.63 ERA)
Yankees: Luis Gil (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
The Blue Jays offense is red hot, and now they’ll take on a rookie pitcher that is likely due for a wake-up call in the big leagues.
Gil has thrown 15.2 innings in the MLB and has allowed nine hits, seven walks, and no runs. He’s got incredible strikeout potential with 18 strikeouts in those 15.2 innings, but the reality is if he’s allowing that many walks, runs are going to start piling up on Gil.
On the season, Gil has a 5.02 xFIP along with a 10.9 percent walk rate. He’s only inducing 30.8 percent ground balls and is walking 15.6 percent of lefties he has faced.
For the Yankees, Gil is a better option than Andrew Heaney, for example, so it makes sense he’s going to get his fourth start of the season. Eventually, though, he’s going to crack with runners in scoring position.
And there’s no offense hotter than the Blue Jays.
In the last 30 days, the Blue Jays have an ISO of .226 and wOBA of .349 against righties. George Springer is expected back into the lineup tonight, and he’s been a fantastic table setter against righties when he’s in the lineup.
Toronto is striking out 15.2 percent of the time and is hitting 23 percent line drives along with just 41 percent ground balls in the last 30 days against righties. Only one batter of the nine projected in the Blue Jays lineup isn’t hitting hard contact consistently against righties in the previous 30 days.
Gil has an ISO power number of 0.000 on both sides, and in reality, that’s going to be hard to sustain. He’s been a great story thus far and has given the Yankees results, which is what counts the most, but a 5.02 xFIP on the season, in the MLB, will get you in trouble.
With that, I’m looking at the Blue Jays Over 2.5 in the first five innings at plus money. There’s so much value there knowing the entire lineup outside Bo Bichette, and Breyvic Valera has been hitting for ridiculous power against righties in the last 30 days. But, of course, Bichette still has potential. He’s just been in a slump recently and is hitting nearly 54 percent of ground balls.
At Yankee Stadium, the Blue Jays can sneak a couple of long balls over the fence and drive some runs in off all of Gil’s walks in the game. The Blue Jays are walking 7.7 percent of the time, and if patient, that number will increase tonight.
For whatever reason, the Yankees are back to their old selves. They’ve been hot and cold all year. Now, they’re back to cold, and the Blue Jays need to capitalize if they want a chance at one of the AL Wild Card spots.
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction: