Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Pick

Jason Radowitz gives us his Kansas City vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction and pick for Thursday's game in Baltimore
Jason Radowitz
Thu, September 9, 9:23 AM EDT

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Pick

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Probable Pitchers

  • Royals: Carlos Hernandez (5-1, 3.57 ERA)
  • Orioles: John Means (5-6, 3.47 ERA)

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Royals vs. Orioles odds

The Orioles failed to score a run through seven innings against the Royals last night. Don’t worry though! They ended up winning their bout against the Royals, 9-8 with nine runs scored in the 8th inning.

I’m sorry for anyone who had the under in that one. I’ve never seen that before.

But I’m a guy that loves to ride momentum and I think the Orioles have some. 

The Royals will start Carlos Hernandez, a right-handed pitcher that has a 3.57 ERA and WHIP of 1.22. In his last start, he went six innings against the White Sox and allowed just two runs on five hits. Still, Hernandez walked three and struck out three and didn’ exactly have his best performance in that one.

Hernandez has a 4.64 xFIP in the last 30 days and is only striking out 18.2 percent of batters in that timeframe. He’s giving up 46.2 percent hard contact and has walked 10.9 percent of lefties in the last 30 days as well.

Against righties, he’s giving up 52.9 percent hard contact along with just a 43.1 percent ground ball rate. Both sides can get to Hernandez is where I’m getting at.

The Orioles have a balanced lineup with at least three lefties in the lineup along with plenty of righties. The projected lineup has an ISO of .225 and wOBA of .318, however they are striking out 25.8 percent of the time against righties.

In reality, Hernandez isn’t a large threat to strike batters out and if the Orioles put the ball in play, good things will happen. Six of the nine batters are hitting grounders less than 40 percent of the time while Austin Hays, Jorge Mateo and Jahmai Jones are hitting line drives consistently against righties.

The bottom of the order is ugly but the top six bats in the lineup can do damage and they’re all stacked with each other. Basically, we’ll just have to concede the inning when the 7-8-9 batters are up.

The other innings will be loaded with power including Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, and DJ Stewart. Any one of those five have plenty of potential against righties when it comes to hitting a home run or two.

I’ll get risky here and take the Orioles to score three runs in the first five innings. They’re clearly capable of scoring nine in one inning, so three in five shouldn’t be too hard! Baltimore is a hitter’s ballpark with plenty of potential for home runs.

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction: Orioles F5 TT Over 2.5 @ +105

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