Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Pick

MLB handicapper Jason Radowitz breaks down Thursday's Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees game and gives us his prediction for the AL East showdown
Jason Radowitz
Thu, September 9, 8:51 AM EDT

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Pick

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Probable Pitchers

  • Blue Jays: Jose Berrios (10-7, 3.55 ERA)
  • Yankees: Nestor Cortes (2-2, 2.67 ERA)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Prediction

Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds

At this point, we’ve got to continue riding the hot team. The Blue Jays cashed one of our tickets last night, scoring over 2.5 in the first five innings against the Yankees.

I wouldn't doubt that happening again.

Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees and although he has a 2.67 ERA, he has an xFIP of 4.57. That’s going to bite him against good, solid offenses like the Blue Jays.

In his last start, Cortes shut down the Orioles for one run in 5.2 innings while striking out seven batters on 84 pitches. He allowed Oakland to score three runs in his previous start and was about average last month before his game in September.

He’s only getting 31.8 percent of ground balls and is allowing 34.8 percent hard contact in the last 30 days. On top of all that, the left-hander has struggled against righties, allowing a .331 wOBA and ISO of .213 against his last 80 righties. The hard contact is 40 percent and the line drive rate is up about nine percentage points compared to lefties.

The Blue Jays lineup will be nine right-handed batters and therefore, Cortes could struggle in this one. Toronto has an ISO of .201 with a wOBA of .348 against lefties in the last 30 days and are led by a stack of righties in the middle of the order including Vlad Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichettte, Teoscar Hernandez, and Alejandro Kirk, who all have high wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days.

This offense has hit grounders just 35.7 percent of the time and George Springer being back at the top of the lineup will be a huge boost for the rest of the month. He’s got a low wOBA and ISO against lefties but has hit some sharp balls and has also limited ground balls.

The Blue Jays, playing at Yankee Stadium, have the hard hit potential and power against lefties that can get a couple balls over the fence against Cortes. At the end of the day, he’s been great against lefties and that has bailed him out so far this season against different, more balanced lineups.

He won’t get one single chance to face a left-hander and will struggle bailing himself out when he gets into trouble. He can get a couple big time strikeouts but even his strikeouts are lower to righties compared to lefties.

Cortes isn’t a ground ball pitcher and will also struggle inducing double plays. Currently, you can get the Blue Jays over 2 in the first five at PointsBet for a reasonable price of +110. If the Blue Jays score two, it’s a push but if they get three it’s a win. I love having that insurance when making these bets.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Prediction: Blue Jays F5 TT Over 2 @ +110

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