Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Pick

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins predictions and picks for Friday's game in Minnesota from handicapper Jason Radowitz.
Jason Radowitz
Fri, September 10, 7:58 AM EDT

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Pick

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Probable Pitchers

  • Royals: Daniel Lynch (4-4, 5.29 ERA)
  • Twins: Griffin Jax (3-3, 6.79 ERA)

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction

Royals vs. Twins odds

The Twins were the laughing stock of baseball this season. Minnesota was supposed to be the team to beat in the AL Central and instead have yet to reach 65 wins on the year in mid-September.

However, the offense might explode tonight going up against Daniel Lynch of the Royals.

Lynch blew up in his last start against the White Sox, allowing six runs on five hits in 2.2 innings. The White Sox smashed two home runs, walked three times and only struck out three times against Lynch in those 2.2 innings.

Prior to his start against the White Sox, Lynch previously gave up just one run in each of his last three starts. However, against the Mariners, he allowed seven hits and one run in 4.2 innings. Before that, he allowed six hits in five innings to the Astros, and gave up one run.

Lynch was escaping damage and was flat out average in his starts. In the last 30 days, Lynch has a 5.87 xFIP along with 14.9 percent walks. He won’t give up many line drives and is solid at inducing ground balls, but the fact of the matter is, he puts guys on base via the walk. When you put anyone on base, bad things usually happen.

The left-hander has also struggled against lefties, allowing a .405 wOBA and ISO of .230 in the last 30 days against righties. His strikeouts are lower and walks are higher compared to lefties.

The Twins will send out a full lineup of right-handed batters. All nine batters in the projected lineup are right-handed bats. They’re hitting just a 1.72 ISO and wOBA of .301 but Lynch has just been dreadful against righties recently. These guys are professionals. They can hit bad pitching and that’s what Lynch has been.

While he’s inducing 75 percent grounders to lefties, Lynch only induces 40 percent ground balls to righties. The ground ball rate is way lower when he’s facing righties. He’s also giving up 44.7 percent hard contact to righties while giving up just 25 percent hard contact to lefties.

With Lynch struggling against righties in the last 30 days and the Twins sending out nine righties in their lineup, I like Minnesota’s chances of scoring three runs in the first five innings. Lynch escaped plenty of jams previously but the White Sox finally exploited Lynch’s weaknesses.

Let’s take the Twins Over 2.5 in the first five innings on the team total. With Griffin Jax on the mound for the Twins, you don’t want to be trying full game moneylines, first-five lines, or anything like that. The Twins pitching staff might allow just as many runs. That’s why you’ll always see me take team total over bets in the first five innings. It’s the best way to exploit a bad pitcher and their weaknesses.

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction: Twins F5 TT Over 2.5 @ -110

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