Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction and pick from handicapper Jason Radowitz for Saturday's game in St. Louis
Jason Radowitz
Sat, September 11, 5:11 AM EDT

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Probable Pitchers

  • Reds: Luis Castillo (7-15, 4.20 ERA)
  • Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (0-2, 5.06 ERA)

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Reds vs. Cardinals odds

The Cardinals dropped a close one to the Reds yesterday and it seemed like if there was going to be a game where the Cardinals won, it was going to be that one.

Now they’ll have to face Luis Castillo, who while he has 15 losses, has been much better than his record shows.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will pitch Miles Mikolas. He’s looked pretty poor since returning from the injured list for the Cardinals.

In 17.1 innings since coming off the injured list, Mikolas has allowed 20 hits, 14 runs, two home runs and six walks. Against the Reds, he’s already had a game where he allowed four runs on five hits in just three innings of work.

Mikolas has an xFIP of 4.29 in his last 30 days with low strikeout numbers and high walk numbers. He’s also allowing 31.7 percent line drive contact along with 43.9 percent hard contact. On top of all that, he’s struggled inducing ground balls and has been awful against lefties with a .380 wOBA in his last 44 plate appearances against them.

The Reds have a combined ISO of .248 and wOBA of .353 in their last 30 days against right-handed pitching using their projected lineup. This team rarely hits grounders and are striking out under 20 percent of the time against righties in those 30 days.

As I mentioned previously, Mikolas has struggled against lefties and we’ll likely see at least five lefties in the lineup for the Reds including Tyler Naquin, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Tucker Barnhart and Max Schrock.

Six of the eight bats are hitting hard contact consistently against righties in the last 30 days and just two of the eight batters are hitting ground balls at a high rate. The Reds profiled well against Mikolas a couple weeks ago and nothing has changed for this one.

Naquin has a wOBA of .517 while Votto has a wOBA of .400 against righties in the last 30 days. Those are two lefties to watch out for. Both can hit the long ball and drive in many runs against Mikolas.

In his last four starts, Mikolas is allowing 37 percent line drives and under 26 percent ground balls against lefties. He’s been solid against righties but those lefties to major damage. Still, righties like Nick Castellanos can still do damage as he has all year against righties. The same goes for Jonathan India and Eugenio Suarez.

I’ll take the Reds at the over 2 in the first five innings on the team total. Again, you all know I love my insurance. If the Reds score two, it’s a push but if they end up with three or more in the first five innings, as expected, we’ll get the win.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Reds F2 TT Over 2 @ -125

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