Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction and Pick

Following yesterday's winner, Matt Zylbert is back with his over/under play for Saturday's Cleveland Indians vs. Milwaukee Brewers game
Matt Zylbert
Sat, September 11, 9:18 AM EDT

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction and Pick

Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.38 ERA) vs. Zach Plesac (10-4, 4.53 ERA)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction

Brewers vs. Indians odds

Wooah, boy. The powers that be are making a very interesting call hanging a total of 9 in a game featuring Burnes.

Oh well, we’ll try to capitalize. This is someone, after all, that is very much in the heart of the National League Cy Young conversation. And it certainly doesn’t look like he’s coming apart anytime soon.

The Saint Mary’s product just continues to deliver stellar work, hence why he ranks third among all starters in ERA (2.38) and WHIP (0.96). Perhaps even more notable, he’s tied with Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole for the best strikeout rate (12.3 K/9).

So, as Burnes continues his quest for pitching’s greatest individual honor, it makes sense to trust him when he’s involved with a relatively high over/under.

Plesac, meanwhile, is not experiencing nearly the same success but he’s still a solid pitcher and one you’d want to have for this particular proposition when Burnes will likely be dealing mostly zeroes.

Prior to “suffering” one of the strangest baseball injuries — he somehow fractured the thumb on his throwing hand while taking off his undershirt — in late May, Plesac was actually having a nice year, pitching to the tune of a 4.14 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .218 batting average against, the latter mark of which is actually only about 10 points higher than Burnes’ BAA.

After returning, it took Plesac some time to settle back in but fortunately, that appears to be the case entering tonight’s outing opposite a quality batting order.

For each of his last three turns, Plesac held the opposition to three or fewer runs. That stretch also includes one of his best performances of the campaign, a seven-shutout-inning, two-hit, seven-strikeout gem two starts ago against the Royals.

In 2020, people forget how really good Plesac was, albeit in only eight starts, as he finished with a 2.28 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and .191 BAA. Based on his recent work as of late, Plesac may be closer to that form.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-112)

Leans

Rangers-Athletics Under 8.5

Rockies-Phillies Under 7.5

Nationals-Pirates Under 9

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “76-66-9,” +2.19 units

Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Orioles Under 9.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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