Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Two teams battling for a spot in the AL Wild Card play the first of a three-game series on the west coast starting tonight. Prediction and pick from handicapper Jason Radowitz for Monday's game in Seattle.
Jason Radowitz
Mon, September 13, 8:27 AM EDT

Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Probable Pitchers

  • Mariners: Logan Gilbert (5-5, 5.10 ERA)
  • Red Sox: Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 5.15 ERA)

Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

Mariners Vs. Red Sox Odds

The AL East is absolutely wild right now. The Rays have the division right now, but the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees are all fighting for the playoffs, knowing one of those four can’t make it.

Meanwhile, the Mariners are still hunting that second wild card spot and have 77 wins on the year. It will be difficult for the Mariners to sustain this kind of success in September behind such a terrible win differential.

Logan Gilbert will take the hill for the Mariners, and despite allowing two runs in his last 9.1 innings, Gilbert has a 5.10 ERA. Before those two games against the Astros, Gilbert allowed 14 runs on 17 hits in 8.2 innings against the Royals and Astros.  He has his horrible moments, and this game will likely be one of them.

Gilbert has an xFIP of 4.82 in his last 30 days with just 21 percent strikeouts, and 2.9 percent walks. The strikeouts are fine, and the walks are low, but Gilbert explodes when teams are making contact. In those last 30 days, he’s allowed a BABIP of .392, meaning 39 percent of balls in play have become hits.

The right-hander also struggles to get a high amount of grounders at 34.2 percent in the last 30 days and gives up 43 percent hard contact. If the ball isn’t on the ground, then it’s hard contact in the air. That’s not a good sign.

Against righties, Gilbert has a wOBA of .418 against his last 72 plate appearances, along with a .333 ISO. Then to lefties, he’s faced 33 batters in the last 30 days and has allowed a wOBA of .369. These are some elevated stats for Gilbert.

The Red Sox lineup has looked very solid against righties this season. The projected lineup has a .221 ISO and .364 wOBA in the last 30 days. They’ve got the first six batters in the lineup hitting a high amount of line drives and only two batters hitting a high amount of grounders in the entire lineup.

On top of that, the Red Sox strikeout just 21.4 percent against righties in the last 30 days and walk 11.6 percent of the time.

I like the Red Sox to scratch out at least three runs in the first five innings, but you can get some insurance via PointsBet with a solid two number. If the Red Sox only score two, it’s a push, but if they score three, it’s a winner.

There’s plenty of power and line-drive potential with this Red Sox lineup. However, they’ll need to get ahead early to secure a win against the Mariners with how well the Mariners bullpen has played this year. Look for the Red Sox to be aggressive early in this game and score three or more runs.

Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction:

Red Sox Over 2 F5 TT (-120)

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