Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction and Pick

After splitting yesterday's doubleheader, the Twins and Indians finish their series tonight. MLB expert Jason Radowitz has his best prediction and picks for the game here.
Jason Radowitz
Wed, September 15, 7:27 AM EDT

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction and Pick

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Probable Pitchers

  • Twins: Griffin Jax (3-3, 6.72 ERA)
  • Indians: Cal Quantrill (5-3, 3.04 ERA)

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction

Twins vs Indians Odds

The Twins have had a miserable year. From the moment Byron Buxton went down earlier in the season, Minnesota fans knew it was over.

The Opening Day starting rotation is entirely different from what it looks like now. The Twins are trying to find answers for next year and are giving their young starters a chance to shine for a spot on the rotation next season. However, Griffin Jax won't be in the rotation next year if he continues to pitch the way he has.

Jax has a 6.72 ERA on the season and has allowed at least three runs in his last six starts for the Twins. He's got an xFIP of 6.54 in his last 30 days while striking out just 15.6 percent of batters and walking nine percent of batters.

The ground ball rate is low, and the line drive rate is high along with the hard contact rate, which is 46.6 percent.

The right-hander has been awful against lefties in the last 30 days with a .481 wOBA and ISO of .407. Righties have a .332 wOBA and ISO of .255 in those same 30 days.

This wager is a complete fade of Jax. The Indians lineup hasn't profiled all that well against righties in the last 30 days, with only Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes showing off power against them.

The Indians still have a .151 ISO, and .3222 wOBA with 9.6 percent walks in the last 30 days against righties. They've got guys that can do damage. But anyone facing Jax has been able to do damage.

The Indians bats are hitting 21 percent line drives against righties in the last 30 days and will have a balanced lineup between five righties and four lefties. That will keep Jax unbalanced throughout the game as he has struggled against lefties and righties around the same amount.

Lefties like Jose Ramirez, Bobby Bradley, Bradley Zimmer, and Andres Gimenez can show off a lot of power against Jax. Meanwhile, righties like Franmil Reyes, Amed Rosario, and Myles Straw have been getting on base at a high rate against righties thanks to a high amount of walks and contact.

I would've loved a 2 number for the Indians on their team total, but all sportsbooks have a 2.5 number. They know what's about to come. We'll ride the 2.5 without insurance. Jax has allowed three or more runs in six of his last starts, and the Indians' balanced lineup should have no problem making it seven straight.

Getting the Indians to score three runs in the first five innings plus money is a gift. Jax allows runs regularly, and while the Indians don't profile incredibly well, they've got guys that can do damage against righties. We'll get the ceiling out of Cleveland's offense tonight against Jax.

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