Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Pick
When: Thursday, September 16, 2021 – 5:05 pm EST
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Probable Pitchers
- Yankees: Jordan Montgomery (5-6, 3.71 ERA)
- Orioles: Chris Ellis (1-0, 2.08 ERA)
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Prediction
The Orioles have a pitcher with an ERA around 2.00, but I’m not so sure that lasts very long.
The Orioles will start with Chris Ellis, who has thrown 21.2 innings while allowing 16 hits and just five runs. It’s a very small sample size, but he’s been going a solid five innings for the Orioles.
In his last two starts, he’s allowed six hits and seven walks while striking out just six batters and giving up 21 fly balls to nine ground-outs.
Eventually, if Ellis will walk that many batters, things aren’t going to end accordingly.
In the last 30 days, Ellis has had a 5.72 xFIP, a 20 percent strikeout rate, and a 10 percent walk rate. In addition, he struggles to induce a high amount of grounders and gives up 26.2 percent line drives and 37.7 percent hard contact.
He just hasn’t allowed the long ball in his first games in 2021. He’s given up just two home runs in 21.2 innings. But when you’re pitching in Baltimore, it’s hard to sustain that. It’s a hitters ballpark with plenty of balls flying out of the yard.
The Yankees have that power. They’ll have an ISO of .201 via their projected lineup with Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, Gary Sanchez, and Brett Gardner. They all have high ISO power numbers against righties in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Baltimore will take on Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery. The left-hander allowed seven runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings in his last bout against the Mets.
The Orioles have had success against Montgomery with a .265 average in 91 at-bats.
This season, the Orioles have been a solid team against lefties and only hit 36.6 percent ground balls in the last 30 days against lefties. They’ve also hit nearly 25 percent line drives against lefties and have power of their own in the lineup.
Recently, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Ramon Urias, and Ryan McKenna have high power numbers against lefties.
With all the power between the Yankees and the Orioles, I like this game to get over in the first five innings. Both Montgomery and Ellis have struggled with high walks and high xFIP’s, and while they haven’t allowed high power, today, that could change.
Both lineups have above-average ISO’s and can hit a high amount of line drives. When you do that in Baltimore, things will work out. The Orioles even have a BABIP of .351 against lefties in the last 30 days, while Ellis, their starter, has allowed his opponents to have a BABIP of .220, which just isn’t sustainable, especially with runners on base.
Let’s take the Over 5 in the first five innings between the Yankees and the Orioles in this one. If you like the long ball, tune into this one.