Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction and Pick
When: Tuesday, September 21, 2021 – 9:40 pm EST
Where: Chase Field
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves Probable Pitchers:
- Braves: Jesse Chavez (3-2, 2.67 ERA)
- Diamondbacks: Luke Weaver (3-5, 4.42 ERA)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
The Braves found their offense against the Diamondbacks last night and are now three games over .500 with a two-game winning streak started. The Braves need to perform against poor teams and last night proved that they're capable of doing just that.
The Diamondbacks will pitch Luke Weaver, a right-handed pitcher coming off two straight games where he's allowed three earned runs and seven runs in total.
Weaver won't go deep and has thrown no more than 84 pitches since returning from the injured list at the beginning of September. At most, Weaver will go five innings for the Diamondbacks, and that's only if he pitches well enough.
In the last 30 days, Weaver has a 4.65 xFIP (through three games), along with just 18 percent strikeouts, and has allowed hard contact of nearly 45 percent.
In years past, Weaver has been known to allow plenty of long balls in his career, and that hard contact is one of the reasons.
Weaver has been awful against lefties with a wOBA of .430 and ISO of .480 in the last 30 days. He's been fine against righties so far, but throughout his career, his ISO from righties is just as high as his ISO against lefties.
The Braves have destroyed right-handed pitching in the last 30 days with an ISO of .246 and wOBA of .342. But, as I've said, Weaver is a guy that allows plenty of hard contact and home runs.
The Braves have that in their lineup. There's a good chance Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, and Freddie Freeman will be in the lineup for the Braves. That will be three big-time lefties that have all the power in the world against righties.
Beyond that, righties like Jorge Soler, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, and Travis d'Arnaud have plenty of power as well against righties. While Dansby Swanson is in a slump right now, he's still a quality bat that can break out at any point.
The Braves have plenty of bats that are consistently hitting the ball hard, and against Weaver, that's what matters the most. If he's not getting strikeouts, he's allowing balls in play. If the balls are in play, there's a good chance it's going to be hard contact in the air for the Braves.
Therefore, let's take the Braves Over 2.5 in the first five innings on the team total. Weaver has allowed three or more runs in back-to-back games, and that's kind of what he's done for his career. He makes mistakes and pays for them, and while the walks are down, he's walked a higher percentage of batters than his three-game small sample size for his career.
The Braves should be able to replicate what they did last night. At this point, every game matters, and the offense knows it.