Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Pick

Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins prediction and pick for Wednesday's game in the Windy City from MLB handicapper Matt Zylbert. Which side of the total is he on?
Matt Zylbert
Wed, September 22, 10:10 AM EDT

Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Pick

Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins

Over/Under: 7

First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers: Joe Ryan (1-1, 2.12 ERA) vs. Kyle Hendricks (14-6, 4.81 ERA)

Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction

Cubs vs Twins Odds

They don’t make totals like 7 anymore.

There’s a glaring reason this series finale has drawn this relatively low over/under tag, being one of those wackier-weather Wrigley games that will feature heavy winds blowing in — specifically, 23 mph.

Obviously, this is a huge factor, as it always is for games operating on the North Side. And it’ll be the deciding blow.

First off, I clearly like Ryan, whom I’ve attached to for his last two starts, both resulting in victorious under calls. The 25-year-old rookie long exhibited notable potential while “toiling” (his word, not mine, and an item he uses as motivation) away in the minor leagues, and now that he’s getting an opportunity, the unique right-hander is taking full advantage of it.

Despite having to leave his most recent outing early — after firing five sharp innings and he was seeking to go all seven in that doubleheader affair — Ryan appears like he’s still in good shape. And so long as he remains unphased, there’s no reason for him not to keep building.

Then we have the veteran starter Hendricks. While the 4.81 ERA next to his name doesn’t look pretty, the Chicago ace hasn’t been as bad as that may suggest.

He’s just suffered unfortunate home-run luck in 2021, yielding a career-high 1.53 HR/9. For comparison, his previous worst mark in a full MLB season was 1.10 HR/9. That’s shockingly been true at home, where Hendricks is being tagged for 1.76. In fact, he’s allowed 17 homers in 16 assignments within the friendly confines this season after previously giving up just 45 taters total across 87 starts at home, spanning 537.2 innings. That’s 0.75 HR/9.

Fortunately for Hendricks this evening, the long-ball element can actually likely e eliminated due to the massiveness of the oncoming winds. Such a weather impact can have the largest effect on a pitcher.

Hendricks is typically better at home. We’ll lean on these longtime tendencies in scratching out a nice performance. With Ryan surging, the bats figure to be quiet.

Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins Pick

Leans

Blue Jays-Rays Under 9

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “82-70-10,” +3.73 units

Yesterday’s Result: Nationals-Marlins Under 8 (“Push”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
0Betslip

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.

Bonus Bets
NBA: Bet $5 Win $200Bet $5 On Any NBA Team, Get $200 If Your Team WinsCLAIM OFFER