Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Pick
When: Wednesday, September 22, 2021 – 7:40 pm EST
Where: American Family Field
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Probable Pitchers:
- Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (1-2, 4.50 ERA)
- Brewers: Brett Anderson (4-8, 4.18 ERA)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
The St. Louis Cardinals are on a 10-game win streak, and I’ve failed to make money with them during this streak. That changes effectively today.
The Brewers will send out a left-hander in Brett Anderson, who allowed 12 earned runs in his last four games and 14.2 innings. His last appearance came on September 1, where he allowed three hits in two innings to the San Francisco Giants. Anderson didn’t allow a run, but he allowed four base runners and escaped damage with only two ground balls, two strikeouts, and four fly balls.
On the season, Anderson has a 4.49 xFIP along with just 13.3 percent strikeouts. However, the one area he has been terrific in is inducing ground balls, getting nearly 60 percent ground balls this season. Still, when he’s not getting ground balls, he’s allowing hard-line drives.
Anderson is giving up 21.7 percent line drives along with 44.9 percent hard contact. Some of those ground balls that are hit against Anderson will find a hole and be hard to defend due to how hard they are hit.
He’s faced 271 righties this season and has allowed a .331 wOBA and ISSO of .169 while only striking out 12.2 percent of batters. These are slightly worse than average for a pitcher.
However, he’ll face a lineup that has dominated left-handed pitching as of late. The Cardinals will put together a full lineup of right-handed batters, other than Lars Nootbar, who will likely bat 8th if he’s in the lineup.
The top of the order has crushed lefties, with Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, Nolan Arenado, and Yadier Molina putting together elevated ISO numbers and above-average wOBA numbers on the season against lefties. In addition, St. Louis just strikes out 19.4 percent and walks eight percent of the time against lefties as well.
While Anderson gets a high amount of grounders, the Cardinals have limited grounders to just 39.4 percent against lefties and have hit over 20 percent line drives as well.
In the last 30 days, this lineup has a .384 ISO and .431 wOBA against lefties, and they’re really minimizing strikeouts.
The last time Anderson faced the Cardinals was back on April 11, where he allowed five hits and one run with two walks and just one strikeout. Things have changed since then. The Cardinals are hot, and Anderson is not.
I have yet to see the Cardinals first five team total at just 2 for the first five innings, but at DraftKings, you can forget the insurance and get the Cardinals at Over 2.5 in the first five innings at +115. There’s some serious value for the Cardinals as they’ve looked terrific in the last 30 days offensively against lefties.