San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Pick

MLB expert Jason Radowitz looks to improve on his red hot 2-0 start to the week with his picks. He breaks down the NL West matchup between the Padres and Giants and gives his best pick for the game here.
Jason Radowitz
Wed, September 22, 7:59 AM EDT

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Pick

When: Wednesday, September 22, 2021 – 10:10 pm EST

Where: Petco Park

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Probable Pitchers:

  • Giants: Scott Kazmir (0-1, 6.43 ERA)
  • Padres: Vince Velasquez (3-7, 6.09 ERA)

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction

Padres vs. Giants Odds

Who would’ve thought Scott Kazmir would be pitching for the best team in baseball in a late September game in 2021? Not me, but it’s pretty cool to see.

I’m not going to sit here and fade the 37-year old Kazmir. The chances he goes beyond four innings are extremely small. However, the Padres just signed former Phillies starter Vince Velasquez, and he’s very fadeable.

Velazquez made his first start for the Padres on September 17 and allowed four hits and four runs in four innings of work. The Padres are depleted when it comes to their starting rotation and have had to go up against the hardest schedule in baseball in the second half of the season.

The playoff hopes for the Padres have dwindled. They’re throwing out Velasquez in spots where they need to win. That’s not going to work. He’s got a 3-7 record along with a 6.09 ERA on the season.

This was mainly against NL East competition. Now he’s going to have to face NL West competition. Someone’s got to wish this man good luck, but it won’t be me.

Velasquez faced the Giants with the Phillies on June 18 and allowed four hits, four runs, and four walks in just four innings of work. He struck out two and gave up 12 fly balls to just two ground balls.

On the season, he has a 5.06 xFIP along with 11.5 percent walks. In addition, he’s inducing just 35 percent of ground balls and giving up 23.4 percent line drives along with 44.4 percent hard contact.

Lefties have a wOBA of .396 on the season with a .246 ISO, and righties have done plenty of damage with a .331 wOBA and ISO of .269.

The Giants offense has crushed righties all season long, but in the last 30 days, they’ve been way above the average.

The projected lineup is hitting a .266 ISO and wOBA of .386 in the last 30 days. They’re striking out just 17.1 percent of the time and walking 10.6 percent of the time. Ground balls are also hard to come by, and the middle of the order is smacking line drives consistently.

Only Buster Posey has really struggled to find power against righties in the last 30 days. The entire lineup outside Posey has been patient at the plate, waiting for their pitch to do some damage.

However, Posey does have a home run against Velasquez in his career. So maybe he can break out of his slump against righties tonight.

With that said, the Giants offense is powerful, and they’ve been hitting for so much power as of late. The wind will be blowing in, but just knowing Velasquez will walk batters makes me excited. The Giants will get a couple of guys on base and just need one long ball to hit another plus-money type bet.

Let’s take the Giants Over 2.5 in the first five innings on the team total. Again, we’re getting plus money here.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Pick

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