Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Pick

MLB expert Jason Radowitz continues to pour in winners. Now 4-0 this week and looking for more. He breaks down the Reds vs. Nationals and gives his best pick for the game here.
Jason Radowitz
Thu, September 23, 6:16 AM EDT

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Pick

When: Thursday, September 23, 2021 – 6:40 pm EST

Where: Great American Ball Park

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Probable Pitchers:

  • Nationals: Patrick Corbin (8-15, 6.17 ERA)
  • Reds: Luis Castillo (8-15, 4.08 ERA)

Reds vs. Nationals Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

This is crazy. We’ve got two pitchers with 8-15 records facing each other. The Nationals will send out Patrick Corbin, who is 8-15 with a 6.17 ERA, and the Reds will pitch Luis Castillo, who has a 4.08 ERA.

Corbin is way more deserving of that record and has been way more inconsistent than Castillo.

Corbin, a left-handed pitcher, is coming off a game where he allowed the Rockies to score six runs on ten hits in four innings of work. But, no, this wasn’t in Colorado. It was home in Washington.

In the last 30 days, Corbin has had an xFIP of 4.97, along with just 16.3 percent strikeouts and nearly 10 percent walks. While he’s getting a high amount of grounders and limiting line drives, he’s still allowing 56.1 percent hard contact in the last 30 days.

His last 97 righties have a .489 wOBA and ISO of .353. He’s striking out righties just 13.4 percent of the time and induces way fewer ground balls against righties. He’s also allowing nearly 20 percent line drives from righties.

Basically, facing lefties has been crucial for Corbin to get out of jams. The only thing is, Corbin will likely face a lineup filled with right-handed bats. In the Reds projected lineup, they’ll have just Joey Votto batting from the left side. Everyone else in that lineup will be right-handed.

Votto has had a .286 ISO against lefties in the last 30 days and is still dangerous against lefties. Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez, and Kyle Farmer are all right-handed bats that have elevated wOBA and ISO numbers against lefties in the last 30 days.

The Reds lineup is hitting just 33.6 percent ground balls in the last 30 days against lefties and over 20 percent of line drives. They’re also walking just under 10 percent of the time, and thanks to Corbin’s control, walks could come every inning.

Suarez is batting .467 in 15 at-bats against Corbin for his career with a double and home run along with four RBI’s. Kyle Farmer is 2-for-8 but has just one strikeout. Lastly, Joey Votto has faced Corbin the most on this team. He’s 6-for-22 with one double and two RBI’s.

The rest of the lineup has never faced Corbin. I find it hard to believe Castellanos has never seen Corbin, but that’s the verdict.

I love the Reds lineup going up against Corbin. He’s allowed 24 hits in his last 18 innings and has been getting rocked really since August. In August, he went 32 innings and allowed 34 hits and 28 runs. September has been more of the same.

Let’s take the Reds Over 2.5 in the first five on the team total at a reasonable price of -110.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Pick

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