Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Pick
When: Friday, September 24, 2021 – 9:40 pm EST
Where: Chase Field
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Probable Pitchers:
- Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin (3-1, 2.93 ERA)
- Diamondbacks: Humberto Castellanos (2-1, 4.11 ERA)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction
The Dodgers are just one game out of the NL West, and while they’ve clinched a playoff spot, they’re going to have to fight every day for the right to stay out of the one-game wild card.
It’s so crazy that a team with 100 wins will have to play in the NL Wild Card game. Still, I don’t know of a better way to go about the playoffs. It’s just unlucky that the Giants and Dodgers are both in the same division and really good.
Anyway, Humberto Castellanos will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. In his last three starts, he’s allowed 11 runs on 19 hits in just 14 innings of work. In September, he’s sporting a 7.07 ERA and is starting to run out of gas.
In the last 30 days, Castellanos has had a 5.45 xFIP along with just 17.5 percent strikeouts. In addition, he’s allowing a BABIP of .341 and is inducing just 37.5 percent ground balls in the last 30 days. On top of all that, Castellanos has allowed 52.1 percent hard contact, which is really high for a starting pitcher.
To lefties, Castellanos is allowing a .408 wOBA and ISO of .361, and then to righties, while he’s better, he’s still below average with a .391 wOBA and ISO of .174.
The Dodgers offense will have four righties and four lefties. That should give Castellanos fits trying to get through a balanced lineup.
The Dodgers have an ISO of .181 and wOBA of .339 in the last 30 days against righties. They’re also hitting 21.2 percent line drives and limiting ground balls to under 41 percent. On top of that, Los Angeles is finding a way on base via the walk, walking 10.4 percent of the time. They’ve also limited strikeouts to 17.8 percent and have been able to put the ball in play.
Being able to put the ball in play against a guy giving up over 52 percent hard contact and a BABIP of .340 is crucial. If he’s not inducing ground balls at a high rate and he’s giving up a high BABIP along with a high amount of hard contact, there’s a good chance he’s allowing hard shots into the outfield that aren’t able to be caught.
Going up against “team launch angle” will be hard for Castellanos. Right now, the Dodgers first five-team total is set at just 2.5 at a juiced up price at -140. I still don’t mind that price.
In Castellanos best starts, he’ll usually allow three runs. For example, he’s gone at least five innings in his last two starts and allowed three runs against the Astros and Mariners. The Diamondbacks won those games, but if you had Over 2.5 in the first five for those opponents, you would’ve won too.