Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers Prediction and Pick

Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers prediction and pick for Saturday's matchup from MLB handicapper Matt Zylbert. Which side of the total is he on?
Matt Zylbert
Sat, September 25, 10:05 AM EDT

Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers Prediction and Pick

Over/Under: 9

First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers: Jordan Lyles (9-12, 5.36 ERA) vs. Chris Ellis (1-0, 2.39 ERA)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers Prediction

Orioles vs. Rangers Odds

Wow, really? Are the oddsmakers going to clearly disrespect Lyles and Ellis like that?

I’m referring to the fact that this matchup from Baltimore has drawn a total of 9 tonight, the same as seen in the series opener featuring relative nobodies Glenn Otto and Zac Lowther doing the pitching.

Here, we at least we have two more proven or established guys going at it.

Ellis is only making his sixth career Major League start. Still, he‘s definitely impressed thus far through the first five, including multiple solid performances against the Yankees and Blue Jays apiece. In fact, he’s yet to allow more than three runs.

Meanwhile, Lyles is a vet that, sure, can be volatile. Right now, however, he’s seemingly on, indicating fine work ahead.

One of the main reasons for pursuing this game is simple. Ellis has been very steady en route to proving himself that he belongs in O’s rotation next season, and we’re hinging on him to maintain this run.

The 2014 third-round pick already passed a handful of stiff tests in his aforementioned dates opposite hard-hitting AL East rivals. In this assignment, Ellis will face the far less difficult Rangers offense, a group that’s dead last in all of baseball in scoring since the All-Star break, plating only 3.44 runs per game.

Thus, this looks like a spot for Ellis to keep it going. But how about the other righty?

Unlike his counterpart, Lyles is not coming off a nice showing, as he was pelted for five runs in less than four innings last time out. To be fair, though, that was against the White Sox. Before that, he was in the midst of one of his best stretches in years — factually, as he had amassed a quality start in each of his previous three outings.

That might not sound like much, but for Lyles, it was just the third time in the last handful of years in which he registered a trio of consecutive quality starts. So to me, despite how his last turn went, Lyles has a pretty good rhythm going. And though this looks like a meaningless affair between two cellar-dwellers, this isn’t so for Lyles.

The soon-to-be 31-year-old is a soon-to-be free agent once his two-year pact that he signed prior to last season concludes.

For both starters, there’s a decent amount on the line where there otherwise wouldn’t be. Navigating through not-so intimidating lineups, pitching figures to do the pacing.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers Pick

Leans

Astros-Athletics Under 8
Mariners-Angels Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “83-72-10,” +2.39 units

Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Twins Under 9 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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