Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
When: Saturday, September 25, 2021 – 7:10 pm EST
Where: Target Field
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Probable Pitchers:
- Blue Jays: Robbie Ray (12-6, 2.72 ERA)
- Twins: John Gant (5-9, 3.76 ERA)
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
Let’s just start by saying that John Gant has had one interesting season. This guy has found every way possible to limit the damage with runners on base. He’s inducing 64.9 percent ground balls and striking out 25 percent of batters in the last 30 days, all while giving up 13.3 percent walks.
His xFIP is 4.76 in the last 30 days, and righties have had success, hitting .337 wOBA and an ISO of .276.
Gant is giving up 37.8 percent hard contact and walking over 12 percent of batters on either side of the plate.
The right-hander has been mainly a reliever since being traded at the deadline to Minnesota. He hasn’t thrown since September 13, where he allowed one walk-in .2 innings of work.
In his last long start, he gave the Twins a five-inning shutout performance where he struck out seven, walked four, and gave up three hits. Basically, there were seven base runners in five innings, and Gant escaped them all.
He’s not escaping tonight. The Blue Jays lineup is hitting just 36.7 percent ground balls, and 23.4 percent line drives. In the last 30 days, this team has had an ISO of .237 and wOBA of .368 while striking out just 14 percent of the time.
This is using an average of 59 plate appearances. This isn’t a small sample size against righties.
The Blue Jays have the righties to produce, and if any team can score with runners in scoring position right now, it’s Toronto. So the Blue Jays will have plenty of opportunities to score runs, and they’ll need a couple of walks and a blast to do it.
Teams have done it before against Gant, but they’ve also struggled to get that one clutch hit instead of hitting into double plays and striking out with runners on.
But again, the Blue Jays aren’t hitting a high amount of grounders, and they’re also striking out 14 percent as a team. The clutch hits will come. Gant has been purely lucky with a .200 BABIP while allowing 37.8 percent hard contact.
As a team, they’re also walking 9.6 percent of the time and have a BABIP of .288. So there’s a good chance 30 percent of the balls put in play become hits. There’s no way Gant finishes the season this lucky. He’s been erratic all season and misses the zone completely at times.
If there’s one team that can solve the Gant puzzle, it’s the heavy right-handed lineup of the Blue Jays.
Let’s take the Blue Jays at a reasonable price of Over 2.5 in the first five innings at -105. We’re taking the hottest team in baseball against the luckiest pitcher in baseball. It’s hard to be lucky against a hot team like the Blue Jays.
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick
- Blue Jays Over 2.5 F5 TT (-105) at DraftKings