Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Pick
When: Monday, September 27, 2021
Time: 8:40 pm ET
Where: Coors Field
Nationals: Josiah Gray (1-2, 5.92 ERA)
Rockies: German Marquez (12-10, 4.32 ERA)
Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction
The Nationals traded for a big ticket prospect in Josiah Gray, while getting rid of two big time players in Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. It looks like Gray might’ve been rushed up to the big leagues as he has really struggled this year.
Gray has a 1-2 record with a 5.92 ERA but has looked like a perennial ace at times. Last week, he earned his first win of the season with a six-inning performance against the Marlins, allowing just two runs and earning eight strikeouts with just one walk.
That also wasn’t his first quality start of the season. He’s had others. But very rarely will you see Gray not allowing anything. In Coors field, it’s going to get harder.
Gray has a 6.93 xFIP in the last 30 days with 17.9 percent strikeouts along with 16.7 percent walks. He’s also not inducing a high amount of grounders and giving up 23.2 percent line drives.
The hard contact continues to be a problem, as he’s allowing 42.9 percent of hard contact along with the high line drive rate and low ground ball rate.
Gray’s last 50 lefties have a wOBA of .446 and an ISO of .359. Against righties, the right-hander has a .373 wOBA and ISO of .357 against his last 34 right-handed batters.
The Rockies are just a completely different team at home and have been consistently hitting righties with an ISO of .234 and wOBA of .331 in the last 30 days for the projected lineup.
The same projected lineup has a balanced amount of lefties and righties to keep Gray off balanced with four righties and four lefties (along with the pitcher spot).
The Rockies bats have hit over 20 percent line drives and have minimized ground balls to just 42.1 percent. They’re also patient enough and walking nine percent of the time thanks to Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story and Ryan McMahon who have walked over 14 percent of the time against righties in the last 30 days.
Gray faced the Rockies at home on September 17 and allowed five runs in 5.1 innings despite allowing just three hits. The walks bit him in this one, allowing four walks including the three hits. Gray has not been able to hold runners on base at a high rate to start the season.
The reality is, his time will come. He wasn’t traded for Scherzer and Turner for no reason. Even Keibert Ruiz is starting to figure it out. But Gray won’t be figuring it all out this year. This was a good experience for the young prospect. Next year could be different.
For now, in Coors Field, Gray should get touched up by this Rockies offense. There aren’t many options to bet on in the MLB today, so wager lightly. However, the Rockies Over 3.5 in the first five on the team total is enticing. The entire lineup has shown real power at home and will face a pitcher that continues to walk a high amount of batters.
A couple walks turn into a couple runs and with the snap of a finger, the Rockies could have four or more runs in the first five innings.