New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Pick
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Pick
When: Wednesday, September 29, 2021 – 7:10 pm EST
Where: Citi Field
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Probable Pitchers:
- Marlins: Elieser Hernandez (1-3, 4.24 ERA)
- Mets: Taijuan Walker (7-11, 4.57 ERA)
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
The New York Mets are starting to show some life in the final week of the season. After missing the playoffs, the Mets hit the gas pedal and defeated the Marlins in a double-header last night.
There’s some momentum for the Mets at home, and I think it continues on into this game.
The Marlins will send out Eliser Hernandez, who is coming off a terrible start against the Nationals, allowing seven hits, four runs, three home runs, and two walks in just four innings.
That was a terrible start for the 26-year-old, who now has an xFIP of 5.92 in the last 30 days, along with under 20 percent strikeouts and over 10 percent walks.
Hernandez is allowing 21.3 percent line drives and including just 34 percent ground balls while giving up 40.4 percent hard contact. He’s been fine against righties but has been absolutely smacked around by lefties with a wOBA of .377 and ISO of .241 in the last 30 days and the last 35 plate appearances from lefties.
The Mets lineup has been red hot in the month of September, with the projected lineup hitting an ISO of .213 and wOBA of .260. There will be potentially five different lefties in the lineup facing Hernandez, so there’s plenty of potential from those lefties to do damage, especially Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, and Jonathan Villar who have been very consistent at the plate against righties as of late.
The Mets struggled against Hernandez the last time he pitched against them. He went five innings in one start with one home run allowed along with five hits. The Mets got on base but couldn’t get those clutch hits across.
With actual film and after seeing him earlier this season, the Mets should have a better approach at the plate against Hernandez and find success.
Michael Conforto, Jonathan Villar, and Brandon Nimmo all have home runs against Hernandez from the left side. So there’s a good chance Villar starts in this game, and that would mean three of the eight batters in the lineup already have a home run against Hernandez for their career.
Currently, you can get the Mets Over 2 in the first five on the team total at -120 via PointsBet. The Mets profile extremely well and the insurance getting that 2 number makes it all worth it.
The Mets are hitting a BABIP of .330 in the last 30 days against righties, and with Hernandez struggling to find the strike zone and strike batters out, the Mets should have plenty of chances to score runs in this game.
The last time they faced Hernandez this year, they had plenty of chances but only scored one run. This time, a two-run blast would give us the push, and a three-run homer would give us the win. Or the Mets can just get base hit after base hit and score runs that way.
Either way, the Mets offense profiles well, and I’d expect them to score at least three runs in the first five innings tonight.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Pick
- Mets Over 2 F5 TT (-120) at PointsBet
Click here for the best sportsbook promotions available in your state
Article Author
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.