San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction and pick from MLB expert Jason Radowitz. Jason gives his best pick for Thursday's NL West matchup.
Jason Radowitz
Thu, September 30, 8:44 AM EDT

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

When:  Thursday, September 30, 2021 – 9:45 pm EST

Where: Oracle Park

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers:

  • Diamondbacks: Madison Bumgarner (7-10, 4.58 ERA)
  • Giants: Scott Kazmir (0-1, 4.09 ERA)

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Odds

It’s stunning to see Scott Kazmir on the mound in late September in 2021 on the best team in baseball.

What’s more astonishing is that Kazmir takes on Madison Bumgarner, a former Giants great, in a “must-win” late September game in 2021.

There’s no way Bumgarner dominates the Giants tonight, knowing they’ll be looking to close the book on the NL West. He’s a Giant at heart, right?

I’m kidding… Bumgarner is going to try to win. But he won’t succeed tonight.

Bumgarner has had a 5.67 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s struck out just 19.2 percent of batters and walked 9.1 percent of batters. The lefty had a BABIP of .190, proving he’s been a bit lucky as he’s not really inducing a high amount of grounders and giving up 48.6 percent hard contact.

Bumgarner is coming off a start against the Atlanta Braves, where he allowed three early runs on five hits in five innings of work. In his last four games, Bumgarner has actually allowed seven home runs along with nine walks.

Against righties, Bumgarner has a wOBA of .349 and ISO of .270 in the last 30 days.

To lefties, he’s also giving up a solid amount of power with an ISO of .231. But none of that matters.

The Giants are expected to send out eight righties to go up against Bumgarner. The Giants lineup has been sensational against lefties in the last 30 days with an ISO of .326 and wOBA of .444. In addition, San Francisco’s lineup is hitting 35.6 percent line drives and just 30.5 percent ground balls in the last 30 days.

Only Kris Bryant has struggled to hit for power in the lineup, but he still has an elevated wOBA of .353.

Every single batter for the Giants other than Thairo Estrada has a wOBA of .353 or higher against lefties in the last 30 days. The entire lineup has some ridiculous numbers against lefties.

I do have to point out that the Giants roster has struggled to hit Bumgarner in the past. They’re hitting just .144 with an OPS of .434 with 90 combined plate appearances. Twenty-five of those plate appearances is from Wilmer Flores, batting .320 with an OPS of .906 against Bumgarner.

Twenty of those plate appearances are from Kris Bryant, who has just four hits in 20 at-bats. The rest of the lineup has only seen Bumgarner nine times or less and has a very small sample size against.

Therefore, I’m not worried about Bumgarner’s success against the Giants previously. The Giants stack up well looking at the last 30 days and this year’s stats and should provide plenty of offense against Bumgarner, who has struggled all month long.

Let’s grab the Giants Over 2.5 in the first five on the team total in this one. The Giants have to start scoring early in games against the Diamondbacks, and this is the game where it happens.

 San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick

  • Giants Over 2 F5 TT (-115) at PointsBet

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