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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies prediction and pick from MLB expert Jason Radowitz. Jason hit both of his picks yesterday and he's back for tonight's MLB slate.
ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction and Pick

When: Friday, October 1, 2021 – 7:05 pm EST

Where: Chase Field

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Probable Pitchers:

  • Rockies: Jon Gray (8-12, 4.28 ERA)
  • Diamondbacks: Humberto Castellanos (2-2, 4.28 ERA)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Odds

The Colorado Rockies might finish the season just ten games under .500. At this point, it’s a huge accomplishment knowing this team really struggled to score runs and win games on the road this season.

There’s promise for the future. I get that the Rockies have been much better at home this season, but the Diamondbacks easily have the worst rotation in baseball.

Okay, maybe it’s close between the Diamondbacks and the Orioles. Either way, the Rockies should find success behind a lineup that actually profiles well against righties as of late.

Humberto Castellanos will take the hill for the Diamondbacks, and he’s got an ERA of 4.28 on the season. In September, he allowed at least three games in each of his four starts and gave up 24 hits in 19 innings of work.

In the last 30 days, Castellanos has had a 5.95 xFIP with just 14.5 percent strikeouts. While walks are down, his BABIP is high at 3.22, and it’s due to the 43.1 percent hard contact allowed.

The right-hander is also struggling to induce a high amount of ground balls, and 87.5 percent of swings against Castellanos have made contact with the ball. Therefore, it’s no surprise that Castellanos hasn’t been good.

Against his last 45 lefties, he’s allowed a .375 wOBA and ISO of .317. To his last 38 righties, Castellanos has allowed a .420 wOBA and ISO of .229. It hasn’t gone well for him against either side of the plate.

Meanwhile, the Rockies have a .216 ISO and wOBA of .325 against righties in the last 30 days. Every single bat in the lineup has some kind of power potential, with every single bat hitting an ISO of .150 or higher in the last 30 days.

Colorado also has limited ground balls against righties to 42.1 percent and continues to hit a solid amount of line drives at 20.4 percent against righties. There’s a massive power stack in this Rockies lineup that includes Trevor Story, CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon, Elias Diaz, and Sam Hilliard, who all have ISO power numbers of .200 or greater against righties in the last 30 days.

Therefore, let’s take the Rockies in the first five on the team total. With Castellanos allowing three or more runs in every start in September, I’m looking at plus money for the Rockies to score three runs in the first five innings. There’s some serious value there, even with this team on the road.

As of late, the Rockies have performed better on the road and have just performed better overall. This team isn’t the Giants, and they’re certainly not the Dodgers, but they’ve come on strong in the second half of the season to play watchable baseball.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Pick

  • Rockies Over 2.5 F5 TT (+125) at DraftKings

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Article Author

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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