Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction and pick for Friday's matchup from MLB handicapper Matt Zylbert. Which side of the total is he on?
Matt Zylbert
Fri, October 1, 10:02 AM EDT

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick

Over/Under: 7

First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers: Ranger Suarez (7-5, 1.45 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (9-14, 3.09 ERA)

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

A somber mood most certainly has to be hovering throughout the Phillies clubhouse after a brutal past three days that saw them swept in Atlanta to officially bow out of the race for the NL East division crown.

And now a quick turnaround will see them travel to South Beach and finish out the chute, starting with tonight’s date right off the bat opposite the former All-Star Alcantara, who is poised to close strong.

If you think this is a meaningless start, think again. No matter what, Alcantara is the type to always churn out a strong effort, but on this particular evening, if he can simply churn out five K’s, he’d become the first Marlins pitcher in nearly 20 years to reach the 200-strikeout and 200-inning plateaus. Additionally, only four pitchers have accomplished this in team history.

Alcantara enters this assignment hot, too, having notched a quality start in all but one of his last nine starts. How is a deflated Philly lineup going to handle that? Well, probably not very well at all.

So it appears like we can entrust the hard-throwing righty for yet another nice performance. How about the other side?

Suarez has been nothing but steady since moving into the starting rotation. In fact, that’s a move that has paid off brilliantly, as the right-hander’s pitched to the tune of a shiny 1.69 ERA in his 11 assignments.

Most notably, only one ball — one! — went beyond the outfield fences during these turns, spanning 58.2 innings, making it highly unlikely the Marlins crank one out.

Remember, also, that Miami has walloped the third-fewest taters in baseball against left-handed pitching. Unfortunately, this is a department where they’ve consistently struggled, sitting second from the bottom in team OPS (.655) and batting average (.226).

Like his counterpart, Suarez comes in on a groove as well. Specifically, he’ll be following up his most impressive performance as a Major Leaguer, hurling a four-hit, seven-strikeout shutout, albeit opposite the Pirates. Still notable, though.

The low total of 7 might seem odd at first glance, but it’s deservedly at that number. Solid pitching shall dictate why this is so.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Leans

Red Sox-Nationals Under 9.5
Mets-Braves Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “86-73-10,” +4.38 units

Last Result: Tigers-Twins Under 5 F5 (WIN), from Wednesday

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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