Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox prediction and pick from MLB expert Jason Radowitz. Can Boston hold on to the last Wild Card spot? Jason gives his best pick for Friday's game.
Jason Radowitz
Fri, October 1, 6:45 AM EDT

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Pick

When: Friday, October 1, 2021 – 7:05 pm EST

Where: Nationals Park

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox Probable Pitchers:

  • Red Sox: Eduardo Rodrigguez (11-8, 4.93 ERA)
  • Nationals: Josh Rogers (2-1, 2.73 ERA)

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

Nationals vs. Red Sox Odds

The Red Sox are currently tied with the Seattle Mariners for the second spot in the AL Wild Card with just three games to play.

Things are getting juicy, but the reality is, the Red Sox shouldn’t have been put in this situation. With a couple of losses to the Orioles, the Red Sox lost ground. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are just one game out of the Wild Card and fighting the Mariners and Red Sox for that second spot. All of this is happening while the Yankees are two games above in the AL Wild Card for the first spot.

Everything is up for grabs this weekend. If the Red Sox want one of these spots, they’re going to need to score runs.

The Nationals will send out Josh Rogers, a left-handed pitcher who has a 2.73 ERA. However, this ERA is pretty deceiving, as he really hasn’t pitched well since being called up at the beginning of September.

Rogers has allowed 25 hits, nine runs, five home runs, and 11 walks in 29.2 innings of work. He allowed seven hits in 4.2 innings against the Reds in his last start with two home runs and four walks while striking out just three.

In his last 30 days, Rogers has a 5.86 xFIP, a 15.3 percent strikeout rate, and an 8.9 walk rate. His BABIP is a .233, which proves just how lucky he’s been. Rogers has induced just 34.8 percent grounders and has allowed 22.8 percent line drives in the last 30 days, along with 43.5 percent hard contact.

Against righties, the left-hander has struggled with a wOBA of .368 and an ISO of .267. The walks are extremely high to righties, and the line drive rate is way higher.

There’s a good chance Rogers faces at least six righties in the Red Sox lineup tonight. But, remember, the Red Sox are on the road against Washington. Therefore, they’ll have to bat a pitcher this weekend. Still, the Red Sox are hitting 28.4 percent line drives against lefties in the last 30 days and have plenty of potential around the entire order.

Boston’s projected lineup does not include Alex Verdugo, who has had trouble against lefties this season. It does include Devers, however, who has also had trouble against lefties as of late. But, beyond those two bats, the Red Sox look live. Only Hunter Renfroe and Christian Vazquez have struggled to hit line drives against lefties in this lineup, along with Devers.

That gives us five bats for the Red Sox, who are hitting line drives over 27 percent of the time against lefties. On the other hand, Rogers is allowing about 23 percent of line drives and has struggled to get grounders and strikeouts at a high rate.

Once the Red Sox put the ball in play, good things are going to happen. Rogers has really been lucky in September. Unfortunately, October is going to be his unlucky month as things unravel in this start.

Take the Red Sox Over 2.5 in the first five on the team total at a fair price of -105. 

 Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox Pick

  • Red Sox Over 2.5 F5 TT (-105) at DraftKings

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