New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Pick

It's always a hard-fought battle when the Yankees and Red Sox meet. But, with the season on the line for both teams, what can we expect? Jason Radowitz gives us his Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction for Tuesday's American League Wild Card Game at Fenway Park
Jason Radowitz
Tue, October 5, 5:59 AM EDT

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Pick

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Probable Pitchers

  • Yankees: Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23 ERA)
  • Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA)

Yankees vs. Red Sox odds

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

We’ve made it to postseason baseball. After grinding out major profit since April, things are about to cool off. I’m not saying we’re going to start losing, but I’ll admit, I don’t put much money on playoff bets.

All season long, I was fading poor pitching. In the playoffs, it’s hard to find poor performing pitchers. You might see a solid matchup here or there, but the reality is, if a pitcher is having a bad outing, they’ll be pulled immediately and it would be hard to hit a team total over bet knowing some big arms from the bullpen are taking over.

We made our profit for the MLB season. Don’t go wild in the postseason and lose it all. Just have some fun and make a small wager here and there to help enjoy the action.

The playoffs will start with a massive rivalry between the Yankees and the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Of course, the winner of this game will take on the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. The loser goes home.

The Red Sox will send out Nathan Eovaldi, the right-handed pitcher with a 3.99 xFIP along with 27.6 percent strikeouts and 6.9 walks in the last 30 days. Eovaldi has been able to limit line drives during that same time span but isn’t getting a high amount of ground balls at 43.9 percent.

In his last 87 plate appearances, Eovaldi has kept lefties and righties in check with a wOBA of .277 to lefties and a .270 wOBA to righties.

However, the Yankees do have some power on their squad with an ISOS of .200 in that same 30-day span against righties. As a team, New York has an ISO of .200 but a wOBA of just .284, which is dreadful. They’re striking out as a lineup 27.2 percent of the time and haven’t walked a whole lot at 8.6 percent. While the Yankees have hiht just 39 percent ground balls, they’re also not hitting that many line drives at just 15.1 percent in the last 30 days.

On the other hand, the Red Sox will take on Yankees starter Gerrit Cole who has a 4.77 xFIP in the last 30 days along with 8.8 percent walks. Cole has struggled getting high strikeouts but has also limited line drives to 17.7 percent.

Against righties, Cole has been poor over the last 30 days with a .433 wOBA and ISO of .309.

The Red Sox lineup has less power but more potential of putting runners on base. The lineup, in the last 30 days, projects to have a .185 ISO and a .330 wOBA. Boston is also striking out at a high rate but have walked 11.3 percent of the time while hitting 24.1 percent line drives.

Neither pitcher has had incredible success against the opposition. They’ve been average, especially this season. The Yankees have more power potential but the Red Sox have the higher chance of getting on base and creating opportunities to score.

I’d feel more comfortable with the Red Sox, at home, against a struggling Gerrit Cole, who has allowed 15 runs in his last three starts.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction: Red Sox F5 @ +105

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