St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Pick

MLB expert Jason Radowitz is fresh off his winner in yesterday's AL Wild Card Game and bringing us his Cardinals vs. Dodgers prediction and pick
Jason Radowitz
Wed, October 6, 7:08 AM EDT

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Pick

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Probable Pitchers

  • Cardinals: Adam Wainwright (17-7, 3.05 ERA)
  • Dodgers: Max Scherzer (15-4, 2.46 ERA)

Cardinals vs. Dodgers odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers will need to win 107 times this season just to make the NLDS in 2021.

The Dodgers missed out on the NL West by one game to the San Francisco Giants. It amazes me that the Dodgers are still the least likely to win the World Series via oddsmakers.

If the Dodgers lose this game, it’s all over. The Dodgers certainly don’t have any value right now when it comes to futures and winning the world series.

Anyway, the Dodgers will pitch Max Scherzer, who they acquired in the final hour of the MLB Trade Deadline this year. With Clayton Kershaw injured yet again, Scherzer is going to have to be the guy the Dodgers rely on the most down the stretch.

The last time Scherzer’s team lost when he started on the mound was on August 8. He allowed seven runs to the Padres in 3.2 innings of work, but that was with the Nationals. Since then, his team has won every start that he’s pitched in.

What I’m trying to say is that Scherzer hasn’t lost a single game with the Dodgers this season when he starts with the ball.

However, Scherzer has slumped a bit recently with his last two performances subpar. He’s allowed 17 hits and 11 runs in ihs last 10.1 innings pitched against Colorado, in Coors and the Padres, at home.

In the last 30 days, Scherzer still has an xFIP of 3.30 and is striking out 30.2 percent of batters while walking 2.3 percent of batters.

The Cardinals batting lineup projects well against righties in the last 30 days with an ISO of .227 and wOBA of .342 but St. Louis has struck out 22 percent of the time and walked just 6.5 percent of the time.

On the other hand, Adam Wainwright will get the call for the Cardinals. After a 17-win regular season, Wainwright was the guy St. Louis was most comfortable with. However, he’s allowed multiple runs in four of his last five starts despite a very high ground ball rate. 

Wainwright doesn’t have the stuff to strike batters out anymore but those ground balls have worked to his favor. Still, the Dodgers are hitting a .294 ISO and wOBA of .376 against righties in the last 30 days.

The Dodgers simply profile better in this spot and are hitting just 41 percent grounders with 17.8 percent strikeouts in the last 30 days against righties. Every batter except for Cody Bellinger has an inflated ISO in the last 30 days for the Dodgers.

The main contributor against righties in the last 30 days against righties has been AJ Pollock, who has a .722 ISO and wOBA of .586 in his last 23 plate appearances against righties. The middle infield between Corey Sseager and Trea Turner are getting on base at a very high rate and many of the Dodgers bats have had success against Wainwright.

The Cardinals roster has just 26 hits in 145 at-bats against Scherzer, totaling to a .130 average with an OPS of .327.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction: Dodgers F5 TT Over 2.5 @ +105

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