Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Game 2 Prediction and Pick
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Game 2 Probable Pitchers
- Braves: Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA)
- Brewers: Brandon Woodruff (9-10, 2.56 ERA)
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Game 2 Prediction
The Milwaukee Brewers took the first game of a best-of-five series against the Atlanta Braves. Runs were hard to come by last night, with the Brewers winning 2-1. There’s potential that this series continues to be low scoring, however, there’s also reason to believe that one of these two teams can score runs.
Max Fried will take the hill for the Braves in Game 2. He’s been sensational, finishing with a 1.54 ERA in September. In each game in September, Fried went at least six innings and threw a quality start in each of those games.
Through the last 30 days, Fried has a 3.38 xFIP with 21.8 percent strikeouts and 1.3 percent walks. He has allowed a BABIP of .172 and is inducing ground balls at 57.6 percent of the time while limiting line drive to just over 15 percent.
However, Fried has allowed a .207 ISO to lefties in his last 30 plate appearances and doesn’t get a high amount of grounders against lefties as well. This is usually strange for a left-handed pitcher, but these are the stats.
The Brewers lineup, on the other hand has seen Fried 26 times and have seven hits with two doubles but no RBI’s. Still, those batters have had success between Christian Yelich, Eduardo Escobar, Jackie Bradley Jr. Lorenzo Cain and Willy Adames.
In the last 30 days, the Brewers have an ISO of .314 and wOBA of .350 against lefties with 18.7 percent strikeouts and 12.2 percent walks. This is a small sample size of about 19 plate appearances per player, but these are numbers we can’t ignore.
The only lefties in the lineup will be Kolten Wong and Christian Yelich, and both have struggled against lefties. However, the righties in the lineup have been patient and disciplined at the plate. Fried has not walked many batters, so this will turn out to be a very interesting matchup.
On the flip side, Brandon Woodruff will take the hill, at home, for the Brewers. He’s been very good as well with a 3.12 xFIP, 31.7 percent strikeouts and 3.2 walks in the last 30 days.
Unlike Fried, Woodruff allows plenty of line drives, has trouble inducing ground balls and has a BABIP of .316.
It’s not a coincidence that Woodruff has a higher BABIP compared to Fried when you look at the higher line drives, lack of ground balls and higher hard contact.
The Braves are hitting 24.6 percent line drives against righties in the last 30 days and still have an ISO of .192.
While Woodruff has struggled when balls are in play, he hasn’t struggled getting strikeouts, which has saved him plenty of times this year.
The Brewers have better numbers against Fried but Fried has been the better pitcher when it comes to limiting hits and runs. While Woodruff hasn’t been dominant with balls in play, he has been sensational getting strikeouts and limiting walks.
This game is super hard to predict so I’m going the player prop route tonight. I like Woodruff to earn six strikeouts in tonight’s game. He’s fanned nearly 32 percent of batters in the last 30 days and the Braves lineup has struck out 26.3 percent in the last 30 days with Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, Travis d’Arnaud and Dansby Swanson striking out over 32 percent of the time. There’s also the pitcher’s spot as well.
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Game 2 Bet: Brandon Woodruff Over 5.5 Strikeouts @ -143