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Last night, Evan Longoria's 5th inning solo home run was all the Giants needed to take a 2-1 NLDS lead over the Dodgers. MLB expert Jason Radowtiz has a pick for tonight's Game 4.
ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Game 4 Prediction and Pick

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Game 4 Probable Pitchers

  • Giants: Anthony DeSclafani (13-7, 3.17 ERA)
  • Dodgers: TBD

Dodgers vs. Giants Game 4 Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Game 4 Prediction

After a 1-0 loss to the Giants, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told the media that everything was on the table regarding who will start this game. There’s a good chance Tony Gonsolin gets the start for the Dodgers, but it’s not confirmed.

There’s also a good chance the Dodgers change pitchers every two or three innings, in a must-win game for the Dodgers, who are down 2-1 in a five-game series.

These types of baseball games make handicapping extremely hard. Playoffs, in general, are hard. Yesterday, we saw Freddy Peralta leave the game for the Brewers after four shutout innings with five strikeouts and just 57 pitches.

You just never know what situation will happen in a game, especially with all hands on deck.

If Gonsolin gets the start, the Giants might be feeling good. Gonsolin has allowed eight runs in his last 12 innings pitched with four home runs allowed. Last night, the wind at Dodger Stadium barred the Dodgers from winning the game. Tonight, the wind is only blowing six mph out to center field. This means we’ll see more long balls that actually get over the fence instead of a 1-0 game with multiple home runs taken back by the wind.

In his last 20 plate appearances against righties, Gonsolin has allowed a .388 wOBA and ISO of .375. However, the right-hander has actually been solid against lefties with a wOBa of .189 and ISO of .088 in that same time frame.

However, lefties are limiting ground balls against Gonsolin, and righties are working walks 10 percent of the time in the last 30 days.

The Giants lineup has a .187 ISO against righties but limit ground balls to 38.2 percent, and hit line drives 23.3 percent in the last 30 days.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers will face Anthony DeSclafani, who has an xFIP of 4.49 with a strikeout rate of just 14.8 percent in the last 30 days. He’s limited the walks but gives up 28 percent line drives and induces just 40 percent ground balls in those 30 days.

He’s been terrific against righties in the last 30 days, but lefties have a wOBA of .347 in the last 29 plate appearances against DeSclafani.

There’s much more power in this Dodgers lineup with every single batter above average in the last 30 days against righties in ISO other than Matt Beaty.

With DeSclafani allowing plenty of line drives, the Dodgers bats, without the wind, should have success hitting the ball over the fence tonight. For the most part, the Dodgers have lived and died with the long ball.

Tonight, they’ll live another day and force a Game 5 with the long ball.

Grab the Dodgers Over 3.5 on the team total in the full game -143. It’s a fair price going up against DeSclafani.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Game 4 Pick

Article Author

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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