Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 1 Prediction and Pick

The ALCS begins tonight between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox. This series should be a good one and MLB expert Jason Radowitz gives his prediction and pick for Game 1 here.
Jason Radowitz
Fri, October 15, 5:21 AM EDT

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 1 Prediction and Pick

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Probable Pitchers

  • Red Sox: Chris Sale (5-1, 3.16 ERA)
  • Astros: Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA)

Astros vs. Red Sox ALCS Game 1 Odds

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 1 Prediction

We’re down to four teams left in the MLB playoffs. So, therefore, let me remind people looking to bet on this game or any postseason game that you don’t have to bet a large sum of money because the game is primetime and on national television. We made a big chunk of money during the regular season, navigating through about 15 games a day, finding the best spots. You can’t do that during the postseason!

Anyway, the Red Sox will take on the Houston Astros to start the ALCS in Houston’s home at Minute Maid Park. Framber Valdez will get the start despite allowing seven hits and four runs in 4.1 innings against the White Sox his last time out.

Valdez has an xFIP of 3.34 with a strikeout rate of 22.7 percent in the last 30 days. However, Valdez will walk 9.3 percent of batters and can struggle with command at times. But with his weakness comes his strengths. Valdez has induced 76.9 percent ground balls in the last 30 days using a sample size of 97 plate appearances. Valdez has also allowed just 9.6 percent line drives. He’s just walking too many batters lately.

The Red Sox lineup hasn’t been terrific against lefties in the last 30 days, either. As a lineup, Boston is hitting a .191 ISO and a wOBA of .327. However, the Red Sox can limit strikeouts and ground balls, which are two things Valdez is really good at earning against the opposition.

On the other hand, Chris Sale will take the mound for the Red Sox after a brutal performance in his last start, giving up four hits and five runs in one inning of work against the Rays. His xFIP has still been low at 3.84, and Sale is still getting 26.7 percent strikeouts. However, he’s allowing 27.3 percent line drives in the last 30 days along with a wOBA of .379 and ISO of .244 to his last 51 righties faced. The Astros will have six righties in the lineup going against Sale, and while many of those righties don’t profile all that well against lefties in the last 30 days, Jose Altuve is one of those hitters that can do serious damage.

Altuve has a .438 ISO and wOBA of .493 with 5.9 percent strikeouts in the last 30 days. At the top of the order, Altuve will have plenty of opportunities to get a couple of base hits and knocks in this game.

Therefore, I’m going to roll with a Jose Altuve prop. At home, there’s a good chance Houston doesn’t have many swings and misses if you know what I mean! Let’s change things up and grab Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases at +105 for tonight’s game. If the Astros are going to win this game, Altuve will be a big reason why.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 1 Pick

  • Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) at DraftKings

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Jason Radowitz
@Jason_Radowitz
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.
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