Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 2 Prediction and Pick

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 2 Prediction and Pick

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 2 Probable Pitchers

• Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA)
• Astros: Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Astros odds - ALCS Game 2

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 2 Prediction

The Boston Red Sox coughed up a 3-1 lead in the sixth inning and ended up losing Game 1 of the ALCS, 5-4. The Astros won’t have Carlos Correa beyond this year but he’s still producing for Houston one last time and hit a go-ahead solo blast.

Before that was a Jose Altuve home run that tied the game for the Astros. If you checked yesterday’s article, we played it safe and took Altuve Over 1.5 total bases at plus money.

Of course that cashed!

Anyway, Luis Garcia will take the hill for the Astros. He’s had two really poor starts in his last two games, allowing 11 runs in 7.2 innings of work with three home runs, five walks and just five ground balls induced. 

In the last 30 days, Garcia has an xFIP of 5.0-7 with 17.7 percent strikeouts and 12.9 percent walks. His BABIP is very high at .359 as he’s allowing 46.9 percent hard contact. Garcia is known for being a ground ball pitcher, despite not getting many in his last two starts. He still has 48.4 percent ground balls and has allowed 19.4 percent line drives.

Against his last 39 lefties, Garcia has allowed a wOBA of .471 and ISO of .400. Even righties have a wOBA of .362 in his last 23 plate appearances against them.

The Red Sox have plenty of power at the top of the order, especially from the left side including Kyle Schwarber, who has a .243 ISO and wOBA of .393 in the last 30 days and Rafael Devers, who has a .417 ISO and wOBA of .428 in the last 30 days.

On the flip side, the Red Sox will send out Nathan Eovaldi, who has been the most consistent pitcher for Boston in the postseason starting rotation. Eovaldi has allowed three runs through two starts in the postseason with 16 strikeouts in 10.1 innings of work.

However, Eovaldi has allowed 22 hits in 67 at-bats against Houston with an OPS of 1.035. That can’t be ignored, despite Eovaldi pitching so well recently.

Eovaldi has a 2.58 xFIP with 28.7 percent strikeouts and five percent walks in the last 30 days. He’s also inducing 46.7 percent ground balls and giving up 16.7 percent line drive, which also isn’t all that bad.

His last 32 lefties have a .359 wOBA and ISO of .300, so lefties like Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker could have success in this one going up against Eovaldi.

Jose Altuve is batting .316 against Eovaldi while Carlos Correa is batting .313 against Eovaldi as well. Those right-handed bats in the Houston order have also done plenty of damage against Eovaldi this season.

Therefore, I think this game goes over. The Red Sox have smashed righties as of late and Garcia has been really struggling. Meanwhile, the Astros have some really nice numbers head-to-head against Eovaldi and will be at home, where some shady stuff happens in the first place.

Let’s take the Over 8.5 at -115 here. A 4-4 game is all we’ll need to cash this.

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 2 Bet: Over 8.5 @ -115