Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 3 Prediction and Pick

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 3 prediction and pick from MLB handicapper Jason Radowitz. See how Jason is betting Game 3 as the series heads to Fenway tonight.
Jason Radowitz
Mon, October 18, 6:25 AM EDT

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 3 Prediction and Pick

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 3 Probable Pitchers

  • Astros: Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA)
  • Red Sox: Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds - ALCS Game 3

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 3 Prediction

The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox are all tied up at one in the ALCS. As we approach Game 3, remember that Boston will play three games at home, with the final two games of the seven-game series set to be played in Houston, if necessary.

So basically, if Boston continues their hot stretch at home, the Astros won’t have the opportunity to play in Texas again this year.

The hot stretch for Boston has been sensational, with an AL Wild Card win and two wins over the Tampa Bay Rays, including a series-clinching win. If that trend continues into this playoff series, the Red Sox would move on into the World Series.

Left-handed pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez will take the hill for the Red Sox for Game 3. On the season, Rodriguez had an ERA of 4.74, but despite a poor ERA, his win-loss record was 13-8.

In the postseason, Rodriguez has had his moments but ultimately hasn’t been terrible. He’s allowed four runs in 6.2 innings of work with five hits and seven strikeouts. The truth be told, he had to face a lethal Tampa Bay Rays lineup that was destroying left-handed pitching all season long.

He’s going to get a bit luckier tonight going up against the Houston Astros, and Houston only has an ISO of .161 and a wOBA of .326 against lefties in the last 30 days.

On the other hand, the Red Sox profile very well against Houston pitcher Jose Urquidy. Urquidy hasn’t started a game since October 3, which was the final regular-season game of the year.

Urquidy went six innings in that start while allowing four hits, three runs, and two home runs. In his last three starts to finish out the regular season, Urquidy allowed five home runs. He also allowed multiple runs in six of his previous seven starts.

The right-hander will have a short leash in this game as he has an xFIP of 5.50 with a strikeout percentage of 18.2 percent in the last 30 days.

He also hasn’t been able to induce a high amount of grounders in the last 30 days at just 31.4 percent and is giving up 56.9 percent hard contact during that same period.

To righties, Urquidy has allowed a .356 wOBA and ISO of .345 against his last 31 right-handed batters. He’s going to have to face plenty of lethal righties, but nobody hotter than Enrique Hernandez.

Hernandez is batting .500 in the first seven postseason games and has five home runs in those seven games, with an OPS above 1.000. In his last 60 plate appearances, Hernandez has a .431 ISO and wOBA of .512 with 30 percent line drives and just 20 percent ground balls in those 60 plate appearances.

Hernandez doesn’t have any success against Urquidy, going 0-for-3 in one game against him. However, Hernandez has been hitting lights out and has smacked right-handed pitching as of late, while Urquidy has struggled to keep the ball in the yard against both righties and lefties.

I’ll ride the hot hand and take Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases at plus money. He has 35 total bases in seven games. So I’m just asking for two tonight. 

 Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 3 Pick

  • Enrique Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at DraftKings
Jason Radowitz
@Jason_Radowitz
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.
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