Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 4 Prediction and Pick

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 4 prediction and pick from MLB handicapper Jason Radowitz. See how Jason is betting Game 4 of the series after he is 3-0 on his ALCS picks to this point.
Jason Radowitz
Tue, October 19, 5:01 AM EDT

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 4 Prediction and Pick

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 4 Probable Pitchers

  • Astros: Zack Greinke (11-6, 4.16 ERA)
  • Red Sox: Nick Pivetta (9-8, 4.53 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds - ALCS Game 4

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 4 Prediction

The Red Sox continue to pitch guys with ERA’s above four, and yet they continue to find ways to win games.

Boston is currently 4-0 at home and has looked sensational hitting, especially at Fenway Park. Last night, the Red Sox scored 12 runs to win 12-3 against the Astros with 11 hits in that game.

Everything seems to be going right for the Red Sox, who are also up 2-1 in the ALCS Series. So Game 4 should be a special one.

Nick Pivetta will take the hill for the Red Sox in Game 4. In his last appearance, he was absolutely dominant against the Rays. On October 10, Pivetta went four innings in relief and allowed just three hits with seven strikeouts and one walk.

The right-handed pitcher has all the stuff to be successful but hasn’t been consistent at all this year. In his appearance before October 10, Pivetta allowed three runs on four hits and two home runs in just 4.2 innings.

This season, he had an xFIP of 4.47 with 26.8 percent strikeouts, and 9.7 percent walks. Pivetta won’t get many grounders and has struggled when it comes to allowing power, especially to righties. Righties hit a .202 ISO in 405 at-bats this season. He also allowed over 40 percent of hard contact from righties this year.

However, Pivetta has done well against the Astros roster, allowing seven hits in 32 at-bats with 11 strikeouts and two walks.

However, four were extra-base hits of those seven hits, including a double from Jose Altuve, a triple from Alex Bregman, and a double from Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker.

On the other hand, Zack Greinke is scheduled for the start for the Astros. Greinke had a weird year this year, allowing an ERA of 4.16. However, he still notched 11 wins and did his part after all.

This will be Greinke’s first start of the year in the postseason. Originally, it would be Jake Odorizzi, but he was asked to come into relief earlier in this series. So now this start belongs to Greinke, who is filling in for Lance McCullers Jr.

When the game was already out of reach, Greinke allowed two hits and no runs in one inning of work against the White Sox. He induced five ground balls and struck out one in that game. However, unfortunately for him, two of those grounders became base hits.

The Red Sox have smashed Greinke in the past with 27 hits in 98 at-bats. Enrique Hernandez, JD Martinez, and Hunter Renfroe all have multiple home runs against Greinke in their careers which is something to think about.  As a roster, the Red Sox also has an OPS of .904.

At home, with the Red Sox smashing right-handed pitching and having great numbers against Greinke, I love the Red Sox to continue using their hot bats. The Sox should hit multiple home runs against Greinke unless he’s taken out early for poor performance.

Let’s ride the Over 4.5 team total for the Red Sox at -134.

 Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 4 Pick

Jason Radowitz
@Jason_Radowitz
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.
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