Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves NLCS Game 3 Prediction and Pick

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves odds and prediction for NLCS Game 3 on Tuesday night in LA. Click here to see which side of the total MLB expert Matt Zylbert is backing tonight.
Matt Zylbert
Tue, October 19, 11:47 AM EDT

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves NLCS Game 3 Prediction and Pick

Over/Under: 7.5

First Pitch: 5:05 p.m. ET

TV: TBS

Probable Pitchers: Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA) vs. Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA)

Dodgers vs. Braves Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves NLCS Game 3 Prediction

Maybe it’s because he’s still just 27 years old, but Buehler commands a lot more respect for the tremendous work he’s churned out once arriving to the playoffs.

How is what Buehler has done annually come postseason time not been revered more? True, he only did debut four years ago — as a reliever — but since inevitably being inserted into the starting rotation one season later to really get his career going, the former first-round pick has been an integral part of each postseason and really significantly shined them in all.

There’s been more of the same thus far in the 2021 iteration, as Buehler allowed a mere four runs across his two assignments with the Giants in the NLDS. The second of the pair came on short rest, and Buehler truly still managed to deliver.

This evening’s affair comes at another huge juncture, being that LA is down 2-0 in this best-of-seven series. A loss here would put them in the dreaded 3-0 predicament, something only one other team has survived to come back and win.

However, Buehler always seems to come through in these spots in his four seasons as lead stalwart of the Dodgers rotation. And that just adds to the fuel of powering a low-scoring game here, alongside how this will emanate from Buehler’s preferred work setting based on notable tendencies.

Throughout his career, the former Vanderbilt Commodore has fared far better at home, constructing a real pretty 2.30 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his 53 games (49 starts) lifetime at Chavez Ravine. Contrast that to a 3.63 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the road — and this is a consistent habit that’s been present in each year.

No one can doubt Buehler here. Not at all.

The same sentiment could also be applied to Morton. After all, who holds a better October track record throughout such a lengthy period of time? Well, no one, really.

Morton sports a dynamite 3.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP from his 14 postseason outings (13 starts). No wonder he’s earned the nod for a handful of Game 7 starts (and pitched well in them). He’s clearly clutch.

Interestingly, this same matchup played out in Game 3 of the World Series last year. Los Angeles actually got to Morton that night, winning 6-2 behind another strong showing from Playoff Buehler, but when Morton faced the Dodgers two time during this season, he was solid in both and yielded three earned runs combined.

Finding a potential duel consisting of two such battle-tested pitchers this time of year that can compare to this one would be extremely difficult. Stand back and just trust both starters to live up to their reps.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves NLCS Game 3 Pick

Leans
None

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*:

Regular season: “88-73-10,” +6.39 units

Postseason: “2-3,” -0.66 unit

Last Result: Red Sox-Astros Under 8.5 (“loss”), from Friday

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit (playoffs 0.5 unit)

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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