Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 5 ALCS Prediction and Over/Under Pick

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros odds and prediction for ALCS Game 5 on Wednesday night in Boston. Click here to see which side of the total MLB expert Matt Zylbert is backing tonight.
Matt Zylbert
Wed, October 20, 10:54 AM EDT

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 5 ALCS Prediction and Over/Under Pick

Over/Under: 9.5

First Pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET

TV: FS1

Probable Pitchers: Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (5-1, 3.16 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Astros ALCS Game 5 Odds

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Prediction

Wow, really? A full-run spike for this Game 1 rematch? And even after that first encounter would have finished under by a half if not for a fluke ninth-inning homer.

For what it’s worth, the F5 under hit.

Instead, that ALCS-opening contest began a streak of overs, which remained undefeated last night thanks to another bad beat, one of the worst possible kind.

The linesmakers are clearly anticipating the bats to keep dictating this series. However, I say that if there’s going to be an under triumph between these two teams this October, it will have to be churned out by this matchup of lefties.

Sale, despite logging only 3.2 total innings across his two postseason starts thus far, is unquestionably still one of the most talented southpaws going. His lack of durability lately has also had more to do with manager Alex Cora opting for an extremely aggressive hook when Sale would obviously be capable of settling in.

In this evening’s Game 4 assignment, there is absolutely no way the former White Sox ace is about to craft another short outing like the prior two. No way.

Before last Friday’s short outing, Sale has accrued 10 starts (including playoffs) opposite the Astros and was excellent, stringing together a 2.33 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 11.81 K/9. Being allowed a lot more leash than his previous two October turns, something that will be vital here, I think that will contribute to quality Sale work.

Meanwhile, his counterpart endured the same fate in their Game 1 meeting of not making it past the third frame. Even so, Valdez, too, figures to improve immensely.

Let’s recall that this is someone coming off a career-best campaign this year after posting a desirable 3.14 ERA while limiting opposing hitters to a .220 average in 22 starts. Amplify that season performance even more, considering he had just 23 Major League starts under his belt prior.

Valdez has shown a knack for handling himself well during the postseason. Dealing with such an inflated total as high as 9.5, all we need is some decent work from the Dominican Republic native. The key is a strong Sale outing to power this. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Pick

Leans

None

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*:

Regular Season: “88-73-10,” +6.39 units

Postseason: “2-4,” -1.26 units

Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Dodgers Under 7.5 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit (playoffs 0.5 unit)

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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