Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 5 Prediction and Pick

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox prediction and pick for Wednesday's Game 5 of the ALCS. Don't miss Jason Radowitz's pick for tonight's crucial showdown
Jason Radowitz
Wed, October 20, 7:00 AM EDT

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 5 Prediction and Pick

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 5 Probable Pitchers

  • Astros: Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA)
  • Red Sox: Chris Sale (9-8, 3.16 ERA)

Astros vs. Red Sox odds

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 5 Prediction

It’s all tied up in the ALCS at two games a piece. Last night, the Red Sox blew a 2-1 lead in the eighth inning, allowing a home run to Jose Altuve. Then in the ninth, things got tricky, as the Astros scored seven more runs after a controversial call that changed the entire game.

Tonight, the Red Sox will play one more game at home before traveling to Houston for the final two games.

Framber Valdez will take the hill for Game 5. In Game 1, he went 2.2 innings while allowing six hits and three runs with three walks and just two strikeouts. Despite allowing three runs, Valdez induced seven ground balls to just three fly outs in that game. He has been a bit unlucky in the postseason, allowing 13 hits in seven innings while producing 16 ground balls to just seven fly balls.

For Valdez, walks have been high in the last 30 days at 10.6 percent. However, he still has an xFIP of 3.75 while striking out 21.2 percent of batters in that same time frame.

Valdez will need to limit walks if he wants to be successful and while he didn’t do that the first time around against Boston, there’s reason to believe he’ll learn from his mistakes. The Red Sox are an aggressive bunch against lefties, especially in the last 30 days.

They’ve walked just 8.2 percent of the time but have only struck out 13.1 percent of the time as a projected lineup in the last 30 days. The Red Sox are looking to swing away in the batter’s box. Valdez will need more first-pitch strikes and will want to get ahead in counts more often.

Even if he walks a batter or two, there’s a legitimate reason to think he can scramble out of jams with a ground ball rate at nearly 77 percent in the last 30 days. A double-play ball always kills rallies and Valdez is capable of getting many of these.

The Red Sox lineup has an ISO of .122 with a wOBA of .332. They’re clearly the worst lineup between the two teams, with the Astros having a wOBA of over .360 in the last 30 days against lefties.

Every game in this ALCS has gone over the total. Last night, the over was a bit lucky as it was a 2-2 game with two outs in the top of the ninth. Anyway, I don’t expect many runs in this game and think both pitchers, Valdez and Chris Sale, get a bit luckier in their starts today.

I like the Red Sox to score under their team total of 4.5 today. Valdez should be able to hold it down and if he can’t, he’ll have a short leash and the Astros will pitch someone that does have it.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 5 Bet: Red Sox Team Total Under 4.5 @ +104 (Unibet)

Jason Radowitz
@Jason_Radowitz
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.
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