Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 5 Prediction and Pick

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers prediction and pick for NLCS Game 5 on Thursday in Los Angeles. MLB Handicapper Jason Radowitz gives us his pick
Jason Radowitz
Thu, October 21, 5:50 AM EDT

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 5 Prediction and Pick

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 5 Probable Pitchers

  • Braves: Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA)
  • Dodgers: Bullpen Game

Braves vs. Dodgers odds - Game 5

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 5 Prediction

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers, on the road, 9-2, to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the NLCS. One more win for the Braves and they’re going to the World Series.

With their backs up against the wall, what do the Dodgers do? They go with a bullpen game. Again.

This isn’t the first time the Dodgers have used a bullpen game in a must-win situation. Back in the NLDS, which seems like so long ago, the Dodgers went with a bullpen game in Game 5 against the San Francisco Giants, where they won 2-1 in a close and tight game.

That’s likely what we’ll have in store for this game, however, even if the Braves lose this game, they’ll go back home and have two games in Truist Park to knock off the Dodgers.

Max Fried will take the hill for the Braves, While he struggled in his last start against the Dodgers, he labored through, allowing two runs in six innings. That meant he got his 14th straight quality start.

But we can’t ignore those eight hits allowed in six innings. The Dodgers have hit lefties well in the last 30 days with an ISO of .238 and wOBA of .361. They just never got that clutch hit to break things open, even when Fried wasn’t at his best.

Fried had a 2.14 xFIP in the last 30 days with no walks and a ground ball rate of 65.1 percent. He’s been hard to solve but the Dodgers came close.

On the Dodgers, Trea Turner, Will Smith and AJ Pollock are the three righties to look out for against Fried. If anyone is going to smack Fried from the right side, those three guys would be it. They’ve been the most consistent when it comes to power, despite Turner struggling at the plate in the NLCS.

We look at analytics here, not the box score. Turner has a .480 ISO and wOBA of .458 against his last 26 lefties. He has faced Fried the most on this team due to his time in Washington facing Fried.

Turner is 7-for-21 against Fried with a home run and a double. His OPS against Fried stands at .940 and he’s been an absolute stud against lefties, really throughout his entire career.

It’s hard to bet on games when you only know one pitcher, but I’ve settled on a player prop for Trea Turner to get over 1.5 total bases at DraftKings at -110.

Again, Turner has an ISO of .480 and wOBA of .458 in the last 30 days against lefties. He’s also striking out under 20 percent of the time and has been aggressive with just 3.8 percent walks.

Taking an over on the total bases has me liking that Turner doesn’t walk, as a walk does not help a total bases prop.

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 5 Bet: Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases @ -110 (DraftKings)

Jason Radowitz
@Jason_Radowitz
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.
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