Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 6 Prediction and Pick

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox prediction and pick for Friday's Game 6 of the ALCS. Don't miss Jason Radowitz's pick for tonight's win or go home for Boston.
Jason Radowitz
Fri, October 22, 4:27 AM EDT

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 6 Prediction and Pick

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS GAME 6 Probable Pitchers

  • Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA)
  • Astros: Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA)

Astros vs. Red Sox Odds - ALCS Game 6

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 6 Prediction

The Houston Astros will have two chances to earn a World Series appearance in Houston, Texas. The Astros knocked off the Red Sox, on the road, on Wednesday, winning 9-1, giving themselves a 3-2 lead against the Red Sox in a pivotal Game 5.

The Astros got a big boost from Framber Valdez in Game 5, as he went eight innings while allowing just three hits and one run off a solo home run. Unfortunately, they won’t be getting another performance like that, especially with starting Luis Garcia. Garcia, a right-handed rookie pitcher from Venezuela, has struggled in the postseason. He’s allowed 10 runs off seven hits and six walks in just 3.2 innings of work. In those 3.2 innings, Garcia has thrown 101 pitches and has induced just two ground balls. In his two starts, Garcia currently has an ERA of 24.55. He’s not going to duplicate what Valdez did on Wednesday.

Instead, he might do the opposite. Garcia has a 5.09 xFIP in the last 30 days with 16.7 percent walks. His BABIP sits at .417, but that’s also due to high leverage situations, with runners on base nearly all the time. The right-hander has allowed 53.3 percent hard contact, and while he’s capable of earning ground balls and limiting line drives, we haven’t seen that in the postseason.

Against his last 30 lefties, Garcia has allowed a .613 wOBA and ISO of .600, and honestly, if Lance McCullers Jr. was available, Garcia might not be pitching in the postseason at this point. Obviously, Garcia will have a quick hook if things go wrong early; however, the Astros can be a bit more relaxed knowing there’s always tomorrow.

The Red Sox lineup has destroyed right-handed pitching all postseason long, and there’s no better right-handed pitcher to face right now than Garcia. You’re not going to find a worse right-handed pitcher this deep in the postseason again.

Boston will need to capitalize with a lineup that has hit a .281 ISO and wOBA of .388 in the last 30 days against righties. This lineup has also walked 11.1 percent of the time and struck out just 22.8 percent of the time against righties in that same time span of 30 days.

Player props on Kyle Schwarber, Enrique Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez all makes sense in this spot. Martinez blasted a grand slam in the first inning against Garcia last Saturday, and the rest of those bats have been on an absolute tear against righties when it comes to ISO numbers and wOBA numbers.

Knowing how bad Garcia has been against lefties, I’ll roll with a Devers player prop of over 1.5 total bases at +110. In a must-win game, Devers should show up. He’s been the most consistent clutch hitter on this team and has raw power against righties. 

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 6 Pick

  • Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) at DraftKings

Astros vs. Red Sox Odds - ALCS Game 6

Click here for the best sportsbook promotions available in your state

Jason Radowitz
@Jason_Radowitz
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.
0Betslip

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.