Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game 6 NLCS Prediction and Over/Under Pick
First Pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: TBS
Probable Pitchers: Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA) vs. Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA)
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game 6 NLCS Prediction
Take that final stat line for Buehler from Game 3 and throw it out the window. That was not Playoff Buehler, and it wasn’t even the NL Cy Young candidate’s fault at all.
When you give a team two extra outs in an inning, especially one of the first-place variety that is in the NLCS, for their solid balance of getting every facet of the game right, well, it can be maddening and exhausting for the starting pitcher. Even someone as steady in October as Buehler.
That’s the thing, though, that leads me to believe the Vanderbilt product can churn out, at least, something closer to his norm. The madness brought upon by the dropped fly ball in center field (which would’ve created a two-out, runner-on-first scenario in that fateful fourth inning — and Atlanta had no runs at that point), not to mention the completely missed would-be strike-three call on the ensuing batter, is what led to Buehler desiring for this big start. He couldn’t go out like that.
And as a result, typical work is what he shall deliver in his best efforts of keeping LA’s world championship defense alive one more night. For those maybe pondering about Buehler going on such short rest (three days), this is a situation the right-hander just handled in the NLDS.
Facing the rival Giants — who had baseball’s best record — on the road, Buehler pitched into the fifth and yielded only one run. Of course, that’s not quite his usual postseason excellence, but we’ll take it since he is preceding the bullpen that etched the Majors’ second-lowest ERA (3.16) this season. They’ve been even better than that in the playoffs, entering tonight’s crucial contest with a 3.01 ERA.
And then we have Anderson, the exact type of hurler you’d want in this situation to go toe-to-toe opposite Buehler when trying to scratch out an under bet triumph.
Like his counterpart, Anderson just comes through decisively this time of year, albeit in a shorter sample size than Buehler’s. Still, Anderson has logged two starts this postseason and allowed only two runs across eight combined innings — this, after a year ago, when he churned out a beautiful 0.96 ERA while registering 11.57 K/9 in his four postseason assignments.
Despite only having completed just his second season in the bigs, Anderson looks prime for these huge spots and gives off the vibe of a true frontline starter for years to come. With so much being at stake, I see the pitchers having their way.
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game 6 NLCS Pick
2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*:
Regular Season: “88-73-10,” +6.39 units
Postseason: “2-5,” -1.82 units
Last Result: Astros-Red Sox Under 9.5 (“loss”) from Wednesday
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit (playoffs 0.5 unit)