Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves World Series Game 1 Prediction and Pick
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves
When: Tuesday, October 26 - 8:00 pm ET
Where to Watch: FOX
Spread: Astros -1
Braves: Charlie Morton (14-6 3.34 ERA)
Astros: Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA)
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves Predictions
The season started out with fans mocking the Astros for cheating in 2017 and 2018. The season is going to finish with the Houston Astros playing in the World Series.
All year, it’s been the Houston Astros against the world. Now, the Braves are basically the world. They say cheaters never win, but the Astros continually win in that organization.
Charlie Morton will look to shut down the Astros in the first game of the World Series. Morton, a former Astros pitcher, who played for Houston during the cheating scandal, will take the hill. He’s not really looking for revenge like everyone else. He was a part of that Houston team.
That’s what makes this whole game and story so weird. Either way, Morton has been solid this season and in the last 30 days. He has an xFIP of 3 with a strikeout rate of 33 percent. He’s walking 10.3 percent of batters but for the year, he was walking just 8.3 percent of batters.
Morton has induced 50 percent of grounders and allowed just 15 percent of line drives. However, he is giving up 40 percent hard contact in his last 97 plate appearances.
The Houston roster has hit Morton well with a .308 average and OPS of .865. They’ve gone 18-for-61 with Martin Maldonado leading the charge, going 7-for-13 with four walks.
The Astros lineup hasn’t faced Morton all that much, however. Only Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley and Maldonado have 10 or more at-bats against Morton so it is a short sample size.
Houston has a .167 ISO and wOBA of just .307 against righties in the last 30 days. The top of the lineup has produced but the bottom half hasn’t. Ironically, Maldonado is part of that bottom half that hasn’t produced lately, however, again, he’s produced well against Morton for his career.
Framber Valdez is set to take the hill for the Astros. He had a great showing in his last start against the Red Sox on the road, but struggled in his previous two starts, allowing seven runs on 14 hits in just seven innings of work.
Valdez had been getting a bit unlucky with ground balls in play. In the first two games, those grounders were hits. In his last game, those grounders became outs.
The Braves have an ISO of .215 and wOBA of .439 against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days and have seven batters that have an above average wOBA in the last 30 days against lefties. There’s plenty of potential in this Braves lineup.
Therefore, I’ll be brave and take the Braves on the moneyline against the Astros. On the road, it’s extremely hard to win in Houston, but if the Braves want a chance at winning the World Series, they’re going to need at least one home win. Why not this one?
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves Pick
MLB Bet: Braves +125 at Caesars