Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros World Series Game 3 Prediction and Pick
When: Friday, October 29, 2021 – 8:09 pm EST Truist Park
Where to Watch: FOX
Braves vs. Astros World Series Game 3 Probable Pitchers:
- Astros: Luis Garcia (11-8 3.30 ERA)
- Braves: Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA)
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros World Series Game 3 Prediction
The Braves stole the first game of the World Series against the Astros on the road but weren’t able to win the second game. With the series tied 1-1, tonight’s Game 3 will be crucial. Whoever wins tonight will be leading the World Series.
The Braves will send out Ian Anderson for tonight’s game. He’s been unstoppable in the postseason and continues to give the Braves a chance to win games when he’s on the mound.
In the postseason, Anderson has a 2.25 ERA through 12 innings of work. In each of these three starts, the Braves won each game, with one over Milwaukee and two wins in starts against the Dodgers.
Anderson has been an average pitcher in the big leagues. He’s going to continue to get better and has the potential to be one of the best arms in the league. Remember, he’s only 23 and has started seven postseason games. In those seven games, dating back to last year, he’s allowed just five earned runs.
In the last 30 days, Anderson hasn’t been all that analytically, but he’s still getting outs and keeping the Braves in games. He has a 4.37 xFIP with 18.9 percent strikeouts, and 9.5 percent walks. None of those stats look very nice, and he’s not a guy that will induce a heavy amount of ground balls either.
Meanwhile, the Astros have an ISO of .197 with a wOBA of .323 in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching along with a .275 BABIP, and just 21.6 percent line drives as a lineup in that same time frame.
On the flip side, Luis Garcia will get the start for the Astros looking to replicate his last start, which was against the Red Sox, where he went 5.1 innings and allowed just one hit and one walk with seven strikeouts.
Prior to that start, Garcia allowed 10 runs in 3.2 innings and walked six batters. That’s more like what we’re used to seeing out of Garcia. Garcia has walked 13.2 percent of batters in the last 30 days but has also struck out 26.5 percent of batters. He’s giving up a .505 wOBA and ISO of .469 to his last 39 lefties and an ISO of .185 to his last 30 righties.
Therefore, lefties like Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, and Joc Pederson should be able to do real damage against Garcia, along with Austin Riley. He has some pop against righties from the right side.
The Braves lineup is hitting 28.9 percent line drives in the last 30 days against righties. However, they’re also striking out 26.6 percent of the time in that same time frame.
The Braves are going to strike out a solid amount of times, but they’ll likely also hit a couple of bombs against Garcia, who tends to allow plenty of long balls.
Even though the designated hitter will be eliminated in the next three games, I still like the Braves lineup to score four runs against Garcia and the Astros bullpen. The power will come, and the Braves will have plenty of it, as long as they make contact.
Let’s take the Braves Over 3.5 on the team total in tonight’s game.
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros World Series Game 3 Pick