Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves World Series Game 4 Prediction and Pick

For Game 4 of the World Series, Jason Radowitz is back with his pick and he's riding the Atlanta Braves tonight.
Jason Radowitz
Sat, October 30, 7:04 AM EDT

Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves World Series Game 4 Prediction and Pick

When: Saturday, October 30, 2021 – 8:09pm EST Truist Park

Where to Watch: FOX

Probable Pitchers:

  • Astros: Zack Greinke (11-6 4.16 ERA)

  • Braves: Bullpen Game

Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

By the end of the World Series, you’re going to think I’m a Braves homer. I’m actually a Mets fan, so no slander will be tolerated.

Anyway, the Braves are up 2-1 in the World Series and I’ve been taking the Braves every game this series. With a bullpen game in store for the Braves tonight, now might not be the best time to take the Braves.

Or it might…

Zack Greinke is slated to take the hill for the Astros. He’s thrown 2.1 innings in the postseason through two appearances and has allowed two runs on three hits with three walks and just one strikeout.

Greinke, however, induced nine ground balls in those 2.1 innings and allowed only two fly balls which was refreshing to see.

In the last 30 days, Greinke has a 4.41 xFIP with 16.7 percent strikeouts and 12.5 percent walks. He’s been mad against righties all year. After facing 413 righties, Greinke allowed a wOBA of .349 and an ISO of .225. There was legitimate power coming from the right-side against Greinke all year.

Meanwhile, the Braves have hit 28 percent line drives as a lineup in the last 30 days but have struck out 27.7 percent of the time. Greinke hasn’t found his strikeout stuff this year and therefore, if the Braves make contact, they’ll limit ground balls and hit for power with line drives.

Greinke has given up four home runs to this Braves lineup and the roster in total has an OPS of .738. Joc Pederson has two home runs against Greinke while Eddie Rosario and Travis d’Arnaud each have one.

Austin Riley has never faced Greinke before but he’s one power bat from the right side that has serious potential against Greinke.

Meanwhile, the Braves will go with a bullpen game and will likely open with Jesse Chavez for this game. Chavez has an xFIP below four in the last 30 days and overall has respectable numbers.

His BABIP is sitting at .158 in the last 30 days and he’s inducing 60 percent ground balls while allowing no line drives. That’s through 26 plate appearances. So again, he didn’t allow a single line drive to his last 26 batters while producing 60 percent grounders.

If it’s Chavez that gets the start, the Braves should be able to get on the board first and never look back. The Astros were no-hit through seven innings last night and shutout for the game. Away from home, the Astros are going to struggle. There’s no roof at Truist Park like there is at Minute Maid Park.

Let’s take the Braves on the moneyline at -108 for Game 4 of the World Series. Another win here would give the Braves a chance to win the World Series, at home, in Game 5. That would be a treat.

Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves Pick

Braves (-108) at FanDuel

Jason Radowitz
@Jason_Radowitz
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.
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