Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves World Series Game 6 Prediction and Pick

MLB Expert, Jason Radowitz is here with his prediction for Game 6 of the World Series with the series moving back to Houston. What's the best bet? Jason gives it here.
Jason Radowitz
Tue, November 2, 5:53 AM EDT

Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves World Series Game 6 Prediction and Pick

When: Tuesday, November 2, 2021 - 8:09 pm EST Minute Maid Park

Where to Watch: Fox

Astros vs. Braves World Series Game 6 Probable Pitchers:

  • Braves: Max Fried (14-,7, 3.04 ERA)
  • Astros: Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA)

Astros vs. Braves - World Series Game 6 Odds

Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves World Series Game 6 Prediction

The Atlanta Braves went up 4-0 against the Houston Astros in Game 5 of the World Series. At that very moment, it seemed like the Braves would cruise to another home win against the Astros and win the World Series on Halloween. Not so fast.

The Astros scored nine runs and defeated the Braves, 9-5, to force Game 6 in Houston.

After a brutal first couple of games in Atlanta, the Astros found a way. They scored just two runs through the first two road games but pounced on Atlanta in Game 5 in a do-or-die game, scoring nine runs in that one.

With Luis Garcia on the mound for the Astros, Houston might need more of that. Garcia has a 7.62 ERA in the postseason through 13 innings. He’s allowed 11 runs on 11 hits with 11 walks and two home runs. He will produce many strikeouts but isn’t a ground ball pitcher, allowing plenty of fly balls and hard contact when batters make contact.

The Braves, on the other hand, have smashed right-handed pitching. They’re hitting 43 percent line drives and just 25.7 percent ground balls against righties. However, the Braves are also striking out 27.8 percent of the time.

Basically, if the Braves can make contact, Garcia is toast. Especially if Garcia is going to walk as many batters as he has. In his last start against the Braves, he walked four batters in less than four innings of work.

A couple of walks and a mistake will put Garcia in a dangerous spot and give the Braves a legitimate chance to break out and score.

On the other hand, Max Fried will take the mound for the Braves. He’s allowed 11 runs in his last two starts in the postseason after putting together 15 straight quality starts prior to those two games.

Against the Astros, Fried allowed seven hits and six runs with six strikeouts, one walk, and 10 ground balls to six fly balls. Fried was unlucky with balls in play against the Astros and if he’s able to induce 10 ground balls again, he’ll see better results.

The left-hander also struck out six in five innings and was putting away batters at a solid rate as well. While Fried has struggled recently, he’s actually done well analytically, which is why I still trust the left-hander to perform in this one.

The Braves don’t want to rely on their relief pitching throughout tonight’s game. They’d love to see Fried leave this game with a quality start and the lead.

To me, that’s a reasonable request. The Braves have the better starter on the mound and a lineup that can absolutely rake against righties when they make contact, Garcia isn’t a ground ball pitcher, and therefore, the Braves will hit line drives against Garcia when putting the ball in play.

Garcia will have a shorter leash but he’ll only exit early if the Braves do damage early. And I believe the Braves will do damage early after they’ve been able to see his style of pitching once already in this series.

Take the Braves moneyline and take out the champagne tonight.

Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves World Series Game 6 Pick

Jason Radowitz
@Jason_Radowitz
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.
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