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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction and pick for Thursday's Opening Day Matchup. How should you bet this one? Baseball expert Justin Perri has strong value on one of Opening Day's totals!

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction: Make Sure You Tail This Total Play on Opening Day

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Weather conditions and travel factors, along with a favorable pitching matchup, are pointing me to a good value on the over 9 runs play in Arizona tonight. Baseball might have the most unique relationship to travel and weather because the climate in which you play this game matters, and it matters a lot. Air density, wind and a player’s relationship to these factors can dictate monumental changes in game results.

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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Traveling from a good hitting environment to a bad one can be disastrous for an offense. We see this exemplified regularly by the Colorado Rockies, who play at one of the best hitting parks in the country and routinely struggle when they leave Coors Field for battles in opponent territory. The opposite holds true, too, staying in a good environment, or even getting used to a poor one, can help hitters be ready for certain pitch types. 

That’s one of the main reasons why I am playing the Over 9 in this game. Spring Training for both of these teams was in Arizona this year, so they get the privilege of staying put to play this game in the desert with the Diamondbacks playing host. This familiarity with the climate makes it one of the only games that looks to have plus-hitting conditions this evening. Other weather metrics are indicating a bit more carry on the baseball which should also help increase the chances of extra-base hits and runs by a decent margin.

The climate is going to help and is always an important factor to watch for, but it’s the scenarios like tonight, where climate matches up well with pitchers who have a risk of a bad performance, that we want to grab the Over. Padres are starting Yu Darvish, who went 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA in Away games last season. He also finished the year with a 6.16 ERA and 1.26 after the All-Star break, so I’m expecting there to be a bit of rust tonight as he tries to shake off a bad finish to 2021. Darvish also opened last season’s campaign against Arizona and they hung 4 runs on him in less than 5 innings of work. Darvish will face off against Bumgarner who is simply past his prime. His K-rate and Whiff% were in the bottom third of baseball last year and he has little fastball velocity left. I think both offenses should have their way tonight. Let’s roll with the O9 at -105, you can play it all the way to -115 if it moves.

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Over/Under Movement

Article Author


Justin applies his background in physics and advanced probability statistics to sports betting through developing and analyzing predictive data models. Focusing on College Basketball and Major League Baseball, Justin’s approach is finding agreement between traditional handicapping methods and statistical analysis. He has appeared on CBS SportsLine and The Early Edge, and also co-hosts Market Movers on YouTube.


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