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MLB is finally here and I will be doing a daily best bet for players to hit a home run along with a daily straight bet. Let's break down where the value is on home run props today.

Thursday's MLB Home Run Best Bets: Trust Pete Alonso to go Yard

The first thing I look at for home run props is how does a player stack up against the starting pitcher. Do they have a good prior history against them or do they usually get carved up? That is usually a good place to start. The next thing I typically look at is recent form but since today is opening day and we have nothing to go off of, all we have is past history but there are still some players who absolutely mash against the current starters for today's games.

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Paul DeJong +390 (Bet $100 to win $390)

My first home run prop of the season is going to be on Paul DeJong of the Cardinals. DeJong had the worst season of his career last season as he actually lost his starting spot towards the end of the year while also dealing with some injuries. One thing that has never been an issue for DeJong is hitting the ball out of the ballpark.

He is not your typical shortstop as he has a ton of power and takes more of an all or nothing approach to the plate. Two years ago DeJong belted 30 homers and is just under 100 homers for his career so he has a lot of pop. Another thing that I really like about DeJong today is that he has had a lot of success against the Prates starter, JT Brubaker. DeJong is 3-7 against Brubaker but all three hits have been for extra bases with two of those being home runs. Considering DeJong's track record as a power hitter and his small but successful sample size against Brubaker, I really like the value on him to hit a homerun today at +390

Pete Alonso +295 (Bet $100 to win $295)

My second home run prop of the year comes in the form of a more traditional power hitter with Pete Alonso. Alonso burst onto the scene three years ago as he belted 53 home runs as a rookie and has been one of the more prolific power hitters in the league over the last three seasons.

Alonso has a very quiet but explosive stance at the plate which has translated to great success at the major league level. Alonso has also had a lot of success against the Nationals opening day starter, Patrick Corbin. Corbin is a good pitcher but he had an awful season last year and will be interesting to see if he is able to bounce back. Alonso in his career is 10-30 (.333) with six extra-base hits including four home runs against Corbin. I think there is a lot of value on Alonso to homer today at +295 given his track record against Corbin. I would play both of these props for no more than 0.5u each.

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Article Author


Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.


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