New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction: A Number Just Too Low
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction: A Number Just Too Low
One of my favorite players is seeking revenge in one of my favorite rivalries, I’m still fading him. I have to bet with my brain and not my heart.
1u - Gerrit Cole o3.5 hits allowed (-150) (Bet $150 to win $100)
Gerrit Cole is so good. I hate having to do this to him but this number is just too dang low. Cole will be highly motivated to get revenge on Boston after last year's playoff elimination. Even with that, I think giving up just four hits is so easy. There are rumors that Cole has an undisclosed pitch count but we’ve seen him throw nearly 70 in Spring Training. Even his pitch count is 75 I think he could easily allow four hits to Boston’s hard-hitting lineup.
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Cole has given up 4+ hits to Boston in all 10 of his career starts and in 26 of 31 games last season if you include the playoff game. These hit rates are absolutely absurd and worth paying the juice for. Even if Cole has a pitch limit I think he could talk Aaron Boone into letting him exceed the number. A rivalry game on opening day to get revenge, he will wanna stay out there. The longer he stays out there, the more potential hits allowed. The first lean was Cole strikeouts today but gut tells me that play will be the Corbin Burnes play of today, where it feels too good to be true because it is.
Cole has allowed 4+ hits to Red Sox in all five starts last year. He even allowed four hits in 50 pitches to them in the wildcard game. In the regular season he allowed no less than five hits and an average of 6.25 hits allowed. Only needing four here feels so low. I know drinking the juice isn’t fun but early in the year is when the sportsbooks are at their most vulnerable so we need to attack these bad lines. I will happily live with whatever the result is here. This prop had a 84% hit rate last year and was five for five against Boston, this bet is the no brainer of the day.