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MLB player prop pick and prediction for Saturday's Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox game. Player prop expert John Hyslop has his eyes set on the Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize.

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction: Casey Mize Gives It Up

We need to be betting baseball these days. It just needs to be done. There's no more college basketball. Football won't be back for months and the NBA is the wild west at the moment. Obviously, there are some diamonds in all that rough that is the NBA, but those don't usually show themselves until later in the day. Much like the Kevin Porter Jr. 25+ points (+275) bet last night (nbd). It's clear that baseball is our clear path to action during the day today. We need to take what the board gives us and the board is giving a lot today. One way we can take advantage is with the pitcher earned run props at DraftKings. They're pure magic and they are priced to move. On top of that, there's no need to wait around all day with no glitter in play because this one starts at 1:10 pm ET.

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Casey Mize Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+135) (Bet $100 to Win $135)

Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

This one might be a DraftKings special as I don't see many earned run options at other books. BetMGM has them but this one is sitting at 1.5 for -175 there so that's a no-go. Way too expensive. Not with gas prices where they are today. That price is pure crazy talk.

I like Casey Mize. He seems like a great kid and he is a good pitcher. He made all of us a ton of coin last season with those 3.5 and 4.5 strikeout props. Still, I think we should think about this one a little. At +135, it's priced a little high for a guy facing the type of lineup he is today. I may be a sucker for a plus moneyline, but if you only bet +135 bets, you would only need to hit 42.55% of your bets to break even. That's the life for me.

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In terms of the team Mize will see today, they smash. The Chicago White Sox should send a squad at him that could lose a few baseballs. In the lineup I project Mize will see, there isn't one guy that has lower than a .317 WOBA against right-handed pitchers. That's crazy.

Mize has had trouble with these guys in the past too. Last season, he started three times against them and gave up at least three earned runs in two of the games. The one time he didn't, the White Sox still got him for two earned. I don't know that Chicago will completely smash the kid today, but the wind is blowing out to left field at 10 mph so there is that going for us too. We only need three runs. Mize just gave that up in his last spring training start and he did it in just 4.1 innings. I think this is a good bet for us to start the day.

Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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