Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction: Must-See JV is Back
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction: Must-See JV is Back
1u - Justin Verlander u1.5 Walks @ +115 (Bet $100 to win $115)
I am well aware that this is Justin Verlander’s first regular-season start since July 24, 2020. Verlander has been out of the game for far too long and I am really excited to see him back tonight. Although the ace has now hit the fine age of 39 we still saw him look great in spring training. I feel like people will see this bet and think that nerves could play a factor but Verlanders never really been the type to let the occasion get in the way of his performance. I’m putting much more faith in the numbers and data than the narrative.
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If there was one narrative worth following it would be that Justin Verlander is apparently under the weather according to Dusty Baker. If that’s the case and it is clearly affecting his performance he could be pulled early and help our bet. We’re not banking on that though, we are expecting a normal JV start and even if that’s the case we’re getting mega value at +115. Verlander has seen these Angels batters a combined 134 times in his career and only has allowed 9 walks. Verlander is projected to go between 5-6 innings. If that’s the case then he would probably see 20 or fewer batters. That data would suggest if anything this should be slightly juiced un the under with - odds and not + odds. This bet is far from a lock but should most definitely not be +115 and if we take bets like this consistently we will surely profit long term.
Verlander has 1 or less walk in 5 of his last 6 vs Los Angeles and tonight I think he has upside for our bet to get pulled early as well. Whether it’s due to illness or not rushing him back from injury I just don’t see him sniffing 7 innings pitched. In spring training we saw Verlander only walk one batter in both starts. The Angels have played two games on the season and have only taken one walk as a team. If they have only taken 1 walk through 18 IP then I don’t expect them to get 2 in 5-6 IP. This bet has incredible value and we will live with the results.